A New Phase of Relations between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government

Shokhan Sherzad Qader 
PhD student at Soran University/ International Relations Department

With Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections, which were held last month on 24^th June 2018, AK Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) won the majority of votes again, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the presidential position at the first round, which most of observers and think tanks outside Turkey were uncertain about the Erdogan’s victory at the first round due to very strict competition between the parties and the candidates. That is why these elections differed from all the others in the history of Turkey; it was at the same time the victory of a huge change from Parliamentary to Presidential Government System.

After the announcement of the outcome of the elections and Erdogan’s victory, one of the most important events was Erdogan’s presidential inauguration ceremony. This was one of the events that the international community, the neighbors and the regional countries in the first instance, waiting for. Many leaders, presidents and prime ministers had been invited for the presidential inauguration ceremony. The prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was officially invited, too, to attend the ceremony. This action has shifted all the attentions on both Turkey and KRG relations, started to pop out many questions whether a new phase is starting in the relations or Turkey only wants to normalize its ties with KRG. What’s most important to reveal out in this paper is that, after Erdogan’s victory, the international community started to make predictions for Turkey’s upcoming foreign policy.

As it is known, KRG underwent a referendum in 15^th September 2017 in order to completely divorce from Iraq and establish its own state, despite all the opposition by the international community, but KRG was still consistent on holding the referendum. Turkey, which is one of the countries that has great significance in many aspects for KRG, too, opposed the referendum at any cost and tried to use many  means to reverse KRG from this decision but all the efforts went in vain. That’s why after the referendum a very clear deterioration could be noticed in the relations, which was out of expectations from the KRG community after such a strong relations based on common interests. It’s important to mention, Turkey have not still taken any concrete and practical steps against the region contrary to what had been stated verbally, and most of the Turkish politicians insisted that they do not have any problem with the Kurdish community as to punish them. Despite everything, we can conclude that there was deterioration in the relations but it was never meant to burn the bridge.

Linking Common Interests
In order to understand the relations of both sides it’s necessary to refer back to the recent background and the developments between two sides, and reveal out the common significant points between the two sides that link them consistently. If we refer back to the history of their relations, Turkey has always had a better relation with the Iraqi Kurdish population compared to other parts of Kurds in the other neighboring countries. This was more obvious during the Turgut Ozal era.

But Once AK Party came to power in 2002, it was obvious that a new stage has been started in Turkish Foreign Policy, which, until that time, had mostly been characterized as non-interventionist, western-oriented, and security centered policies. The change was more obvious especially after Ahmet Davutoglu’s “Strategic Depth” doctrine which was mostly calling for “zero problems with the neighbors”. This doctrine impacted Turkish Foreign policy and started to re-arrange the relations in the region and shift the attention to the Middle East. This has also led the international community and the researchers to think if Turkey wants to review its relations with the West and focus more on the Middle East.

KRG for no doubt has taken the share of this doctrine, and the relations between the two sides developed significantly in many fields such as the economy, which takes the largest share, and political and cultural ties. In order to understand this developments, one needs to refer back to the main points that makes the two sides have consistent common interests and keep the relations strong. For instance;

• As economy plays one of the great points for Turkish Foreign Policy, KRG is one of the crucial economic partner for Turkey. Iraq is the third largest export market for Turkey. More significantly, Turkish companies has recently arisen significantly in the KRG area compared to other parts of Iraq
• The second important aspect that makes the ties even stronger is the Energy sector, and Turkey’s demand for energy leads two sides to collaborate despite all the obstacles which has been faced in this regard.
• One of the most important points is that, especially after Ahmet Davutoglu’s doctrine, a review toward the Middle Eastern countries has started geographically, and KRG gained more focus in this regard. Moreover, a good relation was always preferable for Turkey with the Iraqi Kurdish Government to balance Iran’s hegemony in Iraq. On the other hand, Turkey is also very important geopolitically for the KRG and it prefers better relations with Turkey rather than other neighboring countries of Iraq, and sees Turkey as a road for opening to the West and the rest of the World.

The Way Forward
The ties between two sides is never limited only to the points mentioned above, there are many other aspects that links both sides to have common interests, and diplomatic relations. It is true that during AK Party government a consistent and obvious development could be noticed in the relations and, at times, arrived to the highest peak and called as a golden era. However, holding referendum by the KRG has made the Turkish officials to reconsider their relations all over.

To normalize the relations after the referendum, therefore,  the KRG officials have requested many times to visit and to mend the relations and they were declaring many times in their speech that they eager to return back to the pre–referendum status, and tried to use many intermediaries in this regard. On the other hand, after the referendum, Turkey stated that it has some preconditions to normalize the relations and the following steps will be taken with more cautiously this time. Turkey always insisted on a united Iraq and an integrated territory, and stated that if the KRG abstains from any action that may threaten Turkey’s security, closer steps may have been taken to normalize the ties. Moreover, the invitation of the Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani by Turkey for the inauguration ceremony has been welcomed very warmly by the KRG.  Right after his visit, he insisted for having a new start with Turkey again and evaluated the visit as a positive step for both sides in order to develop the relations.

As mentioned earlier, by these elections, Turkey has already entered to a new phase, and a new step for applying the new presidential government system. That is why Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in his speech in the inauguration ceremony, insisted on making a new start both domestically and internationally, and make so many reforms in many fields. Moreover, he insistently stated that his government will deal with the greater geography and care more on historical ties. More importantly, he stated that this time Turkey aims to be one of the largest 10^th economies in the World, and make all the efforts on carrying out this goal. In his speech he gave some signals of reconsidering many aspects including the foreign policy, and relations with the countries.

We can derive from the present situation of the relations for the near future that it seems that normalizing the ties will be harder than expected. This is because Turkey wants all the parties inside the KRG to have common positions and clearance on some issues such as dealing with PKK which terrorizes Turkey. That is why taking any step won’t be easy for Turkey in order to return back to the pre–referendum status, and recovery in relations needs more time and effort. Above all, this time the relations have to be reconstructed on building trust and free of miscalculations in order to achieve better results that favors both sides. On the other hand, one important point should have kept in mind that Turkey has always preferred the KRG over Iraq to have better relations. This is because dealing with stable neighbors has always been a better choice especially in terms of investments and its internal impacts.