Mosul Operation of ISIS: the Future of Baghdad

Shortly after the process of government formation following the elections of 30 April 2014 started, Iraq was shocked when ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) entered Mosul on 6 June 2014 and established full control over the province. The fact that ISIS is heading for Tikrit and Kirkuk after having occupied Mosul raises the suspicions that Baghdad is the ultimate target of the militant group.

ISIS has conducted some activities under the name of Islamic State of Iraq before the Syrian crisis and later on started its operations in Syria. Having declared "jihad" in Syria, the Islamic State of Iraq renamed itself ISIS and acted with the purpose of establishing an "Islamic State" in Iraq and Syria. In spite of Al Qaida, which opposes the unification of the Iraqi and Syrian branches of ISIS, the activities of the group continued, with attacks organized in both Iraq and Syria. The attacks by ISIS were increasing over 2012 and gained momentum in the summer of 2013. During its 2012 campaign, ISIS for the first time organized attacks in Shia populated regions.

The Iraqi government conducted massive operations against ISIS under the prime minister Nouri al Maliki in the regions where Sunnis formed the majority. These actions had only partial success and were able to temporarily eliminate ISIS. After withdrawing to Sunni regions, ISIS’s new strategy was to establish an area of control over Mosul, Tikrit and Anbar. Its militants constantly and systematically targeted the security forces of the Iraqi central government.

In December 2013, an arrest warrant was issued against Sunni representative Ahmet Alvani, who was accused of supporting terrorism and demonstrations in Anbar. During the operation to arrest him, several people from Alvani’s family lost their lives. After this incident, the anti-government demonstrations, which gained momentum, resulted in ISIS entering Anbar and taking the control in Fallajah and Ramadi. However, Iraqi central government responded harshly. After a long struggle, Maliki regained upper hand and was able to largely maintain control. This success turned out to be profitable for Maliki during the upcoming elections. Emerging as the election winner, he strengthened his position during the government formation process. This situation created a significant disturbance especially among the Sunnis, but among Shias as well. Maliki's statements in regard to establishing a majority government if necessary increased the tension in the political atmosphere of Iraq and created a perception of threat among the Sunnis, who feared being excluded from the political arena.

With the Mosul operation of ISIS, Maliki’s self-confidence seems to be broken. The Iraqi army and security forces gave signs of inadequacy after ISIS's operations in Mosul, Kirkuk and Tikrit, as soldiers escaped the region leaving their uniforms and weapons behind. This situation increases the security gap even more. Especially in the Sunni-populated regions that ISIS has seized, people are fleeing to relatively more secure places. Contrary to the Islamic State of Iraq that was in effect in 2006 and 2007 in provinces such as Mosul, Anbar and Salah ad-Din, ISIS now creates zones of control and tries to form a base among the people. In ISIS controlled Mosul, it is apparently trying to maintain daily life in order to get public support. It is hard to say, however, if it will get support from the people. The most important reasons for this are the methods ISIS uses in its operations and the fact that many of its members are foreigners. If ISIS fails to gather public support it is not likely to successfully continue its operations.

ISIS's Operations and Sectarian Conflict

The gradual expansion of ISIS’s operations is threatening for Baghdad. After taking over Mosul, ISIS took control over the south of Kirkuk. If ISIS is able to establish a north-south connection after it seizes Tikrit, it will probably target Baghdad as well. It is possible that the Iraqi security forces have been withdrawing so quickly from the regions ISIS advanced into, in order to protect Baghdad and the south. However, this situation raises the possibility of a sectarian conflict.

Shia tribes have already begun gathering to respond to the ISIS's operations. Nouri al Maliki made an announcement to trigger a public reaction against ISIS and called the people that side with the government to be armed. The most important religious figure of the Shias, Ayatollah Ali Sistani called on everyone to support the army against terrorism. This mobilization of the Shias, and the fact that Shia militias are supporting Maliki while ISIS militants are heading for Baghdad and are expanding their zone of control, creates the possibility that the Sunnis and the Shias could take up arms against each other again as well.

This situation not only can bring about sectarian clashes, but can also create an ethnic conflict, as the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) benefits from the chaos and is sending Peshmergas to Mosul, Kirkuk, Salah ad-Din and Diyala, in an attempt to expand its influence. As this effort further limits the power of Baghdad, one can observe that ISIS and KRG have a “common enemy”, and that both benefit from the current situation. That is why the members of ISIS and the KRG do not move against each other.

The situation is very unstable. It is probable that ISIS and the KRG will come to face each other in regions such as the Rabia border gate in the north of Iraq. The fact that both sides pursue the same goal may create conflict dynamics. However, if the two sides find a compromise, scenarios of a divided Iraq become apparent more than ever. The critical issue, in this sense, is the extent to which Maliki can gather strength and challenge ISIS’s power before ISIS consolidates its activities in the regions it has occupied. It that case, the KRG and Iraqi government might make a new agreement and move together, because the KRG openly indicates that it can help the central government in its struggle against ISIS.

Whether the KRG and Iraqi government will be successful in their fight against ISIS is also related to the support they get from the Sunnis. For the moment, Maliki waits and does not make a move against ISIS. However, it is quite possible that Maliki will start an offensive as soon as he gathers his strength and finds adequate support. He seems also to be assured he has support from the USA and Iran. At the same time, the Shias don’t want to lose the government. If that happens, we can expect the current conflict in Iraq to gradually deteriorate. The present struggles will determine whether Iraq maintains its unity or that it will be divided.