|
|
|
 |
|
| Government Change Scenarios in Yemen: Bloody? Peaceful? |
| Assoc. Dr. Veysel AYHAN, ORSAM Middle East Advisor |
|
 The peaceful mass demonstrations having started on January 2011 for the resignation of Abdullah Saleh from his post has taken a new dimension with the missile attacks done directly against Saleh on June 3. During the period when the opposition parties increased their pressure through mass demonstrations before June 3, supporters of Saleh were organizing also mass actions to give the message that they would not leave the power. As, besides the palace guards, the Special Units are under the command of Saleh’s son and his nephews and some tribes who are afraid of that Ahmar family comes to the power support Saleh, Yemen people has been divided around two different leaders. While the struggle for power drifts Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula as a whole into the instability, 6 Gulf countries which are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have started in April to conduct a series of negotiations with the parties in Yemen for a peaceful government change. The primary of the suggestions which were revised several times by the GCC members was based on the resignation of Yemeni President Abdullah Saleh from his post of presidency in accordance with the order described in the Constitution and maintaining his immunity after his resignation from the presidency. One of the first suggestions offered to the Yemeni parties was to hold the elections in a short time and that Abdullah Saleh stay in power until the elections. When the opponents did not accept this suggestion, the Gulf Cooperation Council started to focus on conducting the Constitutional transfer of authority in the way which is more acceptable for the parties. The new suggestion offered in April to the Yemeni parties was President Saleh’s leaving his post in a month to the Vice President and then to establish a national unity government in which the party in power is represented with 50%, the opposition with 40% and the independents with 10%, to constitute a new constitution and hold a referendum about the new constitution and finally to hold the elections. It was foreseen that the preparation of the new constitution and holding the elections with this new constitution approved by the public would be completed in 60 days.
While this suggestion which was actively supported by Saudi Arabia and the US was accepted by the Yemeni opposition parties, a great number of the Yemeni young refused the suggestion and declared that they would maintain the street demonstrations. However, when President Abdullah Saleh announced in a short while that he had accepted the constitutional transition, a strong perception started to appear about the overcome of the crisis in a peaceful way. In fact, it was known that Ahmar family and other opposition parties who accepted the suggestion of the GCC hesitated about the suggestions. The article 114 and 115 in the Yemeni Constitution state how the Constitutional transfer of authority could be done and the GCC focused on such a transfer of authority by taking into consideration these articles. In this context, the resignation of the president had to be approved by the assembly. While the opposition leaders demanded for the establishment of the national unity government after the approval of the president’s resignation by the assembly, the supporters of Saleh support the idea of establishing the national unity government after the acceptance of the President Saleh to resign. However, the opposition claimed that the resignation of Saleh might be refused in a parliament in which the party in power has the majority. In spite of all these hesitations, in the middle of May while the street demonstrations continued still, the opposition parties signed the suggestion of the GCC for peaceful transfer of authority and made an important improvement for the resolution of the problem. However, on May 22 President Saleh declared that he would not sign the suggestion for the constitutional transfer of authority although he had stated that he would sign before. Additionally, after the attack done on May 22 to the committee under the leadership of GCC Secretary General Abdullatif Al-Zayani in the Embassy of United Arab Emirates in Sana’a, the GCC committee decided to leave the country. As Abdullah Saleh refused the suggestion of resigning from the power by trusting in the support of Saudi Arabia, the opposition parties and leaders decided to continue their protests until the acceptance of Abdullah Saleh to resign from the presidency.
The authorities of the Gulf Cooperation Council that left the country on May 23 declared in their statements that they abandoned the mediator role in this struggle for power between the groups in Yemen. On the following days after the departure of the GCC authorities from the country, the Saleh government ordered to hold large-scaled operations against the Ahmar family that it accused to be behind the actions. The Abdullah Saleh government which made arrest warrant taken for about 10 people from the Ahmar family including Hamad and Sadik Ahmar for the accusations of attempting to overthrow the regime, started to hold later military operations toward the settlement places where the Ahmar family live. Besides Sadik and Hamad, General Ali Muhsin Al Ahmar was among the ones into whose houses were held operations, which deepened more the crisis in Yemen.
Assassination Attack against the President
The government of Saleh gave priority to the military operations which are directly against the opponents especially against the Ahmar family, and this caused the increase of the tension in the country. The armed conflicts between the parties reached finally to the highest level with the attack done on June 3, 2011 to the presidential palace in Sana’a. In the attack, President Saleh, the Speaker, the Prime Minister and the Governor of Sana’a were seriously wounded. However according to the statements done later, it was claimed that Ali Ahmed Saleh who is the President Saleh’s son, the Minister of Internal Affairs, the Presidential National Security Adviser, the Head of the Intelligence, the Commander of the Special Units protecting the Presidential Palace and some political and security authorities died in the attack.
Although in the first statement done by the government, it was claimed that the attack was supported by the Ahmar family, the Ahmar family did not accept these accusations. However, a couple of days after the attack, it was claimed that the half-brother of Saleh who has passed to the side of the opposition was behind the attack. It is stated that the attack was held for a blood feud which came out when Abdullah Saleh made his nephew killed.
Besides that, Abdullah Saleh went to Riyadh for treatment on June 5 and this brought about that thousands of opponents went out in large numbers. The anxious wait in Yemen increased more when it was declared that Saleh would return to the country in a short time and this time the supporters of the regime went out in large numbers and gave the message that they would keep the power in their hands.
On the other hand, just after Saleh had to leave the country, the Saudi authorities called for a cease fire in order to stop the conflicts ongoing in Yemen. Additionally, it was stated in the statements done in Riyadh that they would make efforts for the realization of the peaceful transfer of authority. Moreover, in the statements done by the EU and the US, it was stated that they support also the suggestion offered by the GCC. The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that she is in favor of the transfer of authority in Yemen and that she believes this will be for the benefit of the Yemeni people. On the other hand, it was claimed that Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansur Hadi who conducted the presidency by procuration after the departure of Saleh to Saudi Arabia made preparations to negotiate with Saleh’s sons and the authorities of the army for the sake of a peaceful transfer. It is known that there are relatives of Saleh in the high level offices within the military bureaucracy. Among them there have been some names such as Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh (his son) who was alleged to be killed in the attack, as the Commander of the Republican Guards and Special Units; Yahya Mohammed Abdullah Saleh (his nephew) as the Chairman of the Police Department Personnel; Ammar Mohammed Abdullah Saleh (his nephew) in charge of national security; Mohammad Salim Abdullah al-Ahmar (his brother) as the Air Force Commander; Ali Muhsen Al-Ahmar, his brother who passed to the opposition side, as the Military Commander of the North West Division of the Army; his cousin Mohammad Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar as the commander of the Eastern Region Military Department and the Military Commander of Adjund. Besides the security units, a great amount of the oil companies and commercial institutions in the country are directly under the control of the Saleh family.
Therefore, unless a consensus is provided on the democratic transition process, the country may be quickly dragged into a civil war. Indeed, it has been stated that two important names of the Yemeni opposition Ali Muhsin and the leader of the Hashed tribal confederations Sadik Ah-Ahmarwent have gone to Saudi Arabia where President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been treated and have initiated direct negotiations with Saleh in relation to the peaceful transition. During the anxious wait in Yemen, the opponents brought again to the fore their demands for the resignation of Saleh and transferring his authorities to the Vice President and warned that they would found an interim government unless the transfer of authority does not take place. It is stated that Saleh family insisting to keep the power in his hands despite the pressure of the opposition, hesitates about the transfer of authority and resists it.
Scenarios in Yemen for the Post-Saleh Period
The fact that, following the attack which happened on June 3, Abdullah Saleh has gone on June 5 to Saudi Arabia has provided a new dimension to the struggle for power in Yemen. It has been foreseen that after the departure of Saleh to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh that is the constructor of the suggestion of the Gulf Cooperation Council for a transfer of authority will increase its pressures for the resolution of the problem in Yemen. Meanwhile, as for June 6, a cease fire has been provided between the Ahmar family and the security forces in Yemen and the conflicts have been mutually stopped. Besides that, the claim stated in the statements done by the party in power about the return of Saleh to the country causes the reaction of the opposition. In this context, it is clear that the most important problem of Yemen is to determine how President Saleh will resign and how the post-Saleh period will be shaped. But the Palace Guards and the Special Units have been still under the control of Abdullah Saleh’s sons and nephews, and some of the tribes continue to support President Abdullah Saleh. On the other hand, the Ahmar family, the groups of Hutsi, civil activists and some of the military commanders are on the side of the opposition. Therefore, existence of two militarily armed blocks poses an important obstacle for the peaceful resolution of the problem.
Within this frame, it is necessary to state that some different scenarios about the government change in Yemen have being discussed. Especially the opinion of the Journalist Nasser Arrabyee that he brought to the agenda on June 7 is important; he believes that Saleh’s acceptance of a peaceful and constitutional transfer of authority under the pressure of the US, the EU and the Saudi Arabia would be the most appropriate solution for the Yemenis as well. Arrabyee warns that a severe civil war may break out in the country if Saleh returns to the country without accepting the government change. But at the same time it is feared that the supporters of Saleh put into practice a large scaled revenge policy.
On the other hand, it is thought that there will be a serious chaos in the country in case that President Saleh returns from Saudi Arabia. People and groups that support the government of Saleh may constitute a strong resistance against a peaceful government change. In case that the parties choose to mutually apply to force, it may be possible that the country is drafted into a civil war which may last for a long time. On the other hand, it is seen that the supporters of the regime oppose to the possibility that the Ahmar family acquires the power. Supposing that the Ahmar family tries to acquire the power by using force, this time a strong opposition wave against the Ahmar family may appear. A civil war may bring out that some forces such as Al Qaeda gain power and that humanitarian problems get graver in Yemen where people have to live with less than 2 dollars. In conclusion, it may be argued that the struggle for power that has deepened since the early 2011 will not end in a short time and that this country is being drafted quickly into a civil war. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 June 2011 |
|
   |
|
|
|
|
|