The Effect of The ISIS June Offensive on the Ethnic and Religious Groups in Iraq

Iraq was going through a government formation process after the general elections of 30 April 2014, when it was shocked by the capture and takeover of the province of Mosul on 6 June 2014. Heading towards Kirkuk after the capture of Mosul, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, declared that they aim to capture Baghdad. Accordingly, ISIS captured Suleymanbey, Shirgat, Beyci as well as Tikrit, the center of the province of Salahaddin, and headed towards the province of Diyala, which is situated along the Iranian border.  ISIS took over Baquba, the center of the province of Diyala, sought to enter Samarra and clashed against the Iraqi army and the Pashmarga in Haneqin and Jalaula, and had Baghdad in its sights.
 
The June offensive of ISIS has become a turning point for the future direction that Iraq will take. At present, ISIS controls most of the land that remains out of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government’s (KRG) territory.  However, it seems unlikely that Baghdad will fall as easily as the other cities. That is because Nouri al-Maliki, being aware that he is unable to fight against ISIS and affiliated groups on many fronts, pulled back and sought to maintain his control of Baghdad. Additionally, he required aid from the United States and other countries for his struggle against ISIS. Thus, the United States has sent a warship to the Gulf of Basra in order to provide arms and logistical support to the Iraqi government. Iran has declared that it is going to aid Iraq in order to protect the Shiite sacred sites. In this sense, the June offensive of ISIS has affected the ethnic and religious groups in Iraq in different and various ways. At this point, besides a general analysis, it is useful to examine how the different ethnic and religious groups are affected by the ISIS operations in Iraq.
 
The ISIS Offensive’s Effect on the Sunnis
 
Even though ISIS seems to move against the Iraqi government and the Shiites, it would not be wrong to state that the Sunni people suffer a great deal as well. As of the current situation, the areas under the ISIS control are Mosul, Salahaddin, Diyala, al Anbar and the south of Kirkuk, which are Sunni-majority territories. In this sense, ISIS seeks to establish dominance and control over the Sunnis in order to garner popular support. Therefore, it does not engage in harmful acts towards the people. However, the Iraqi government’s air and ground operations against ISIS cause casualties among the people. According to the official numbers, more than 900,000 people had to flee in Mosul and al Anbar, where the Sunnis constitute the majority. Even though ISIS does not target the Sunni people, its activities create harmful effects on them. Additionally, the ISIS activities had a negative effect on the Sunni political groups in the post-election process as well. While the Sunni politicians were trying to formulate their legitimate demands in order to avoid al Maliki’s pressure, ISIS seeks to act as the “savior of the Sunnis,” which damages the legitimate efforts of the Sunnis. The Sunni politicians lose their bargaining power because ISIS, which is considered a radical terrorist organization by the whole world, wants to be the defender of the Sunnis. The Sunnis face difficulties, because the former Baathists and resistance groups cooperate with ISIS against the Iraqi government. Additionally, for the reason that the Sunni tribes cannot resist ISIS, the Sunnis are seen as cooperating with it and face the risk of exclusion from the political process.
 
The ISIS Offensive and the Shiite Groups’ Reactions 
 
The Shiites are outraged by the sectarian attacks by ISIS against the Shiite minority and the Iraqi government forces, in its offensive towards the Sunni-majority areas. They have developed a self-protective consciousness because ISIS, acting upon its sectarian identity, engaged in inhumane acts against the Shiites and vowed to destroy their sacred sites. The Shiite came together and formed volunteer militia against ISIS’s offensive. Muqtada al Sadr called its followers to protect the Shiite regions and sacred sites. The volunteers, who responded to al Sadr’s call, formed the “Peace Brigades,” along with the Mahdi Army, which laid down its arms in 2009, and held military parades in several cities, especially in Baghdad, Najaf and Kirkuk. Even Ammar al Hakim, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, who has adopted a moderate stance for the last few years, donned military uniform and took up arms, thus conveying a message to his followers. Prime Minister Maliki called the people to resist ISIS and declared that he would provide arms to those people, who will support the government. Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the highest-ranking Shia marja in Iraq, called for support for the army and it has constituted a turning point in Maliki’s fight against ISIS. The Shiite groups, which grew distant from each other in political terms, started to come together. The Shiites’ efforts to protect their sacred sites against terrorist attacks are likely to develop an anti-Sunni character and cause a sectarian conflict in Iraq. Since the course of the recent debates revolve around the issue of the sects, the Shiites and the Sunnis are more likely to face confrontation. If the pro-Maliki Shiite people and the Shiite militias fight against ISIS, there is the possibility that the Shiite and Sunni people will directly clash.
 
The ISIS Operations and the Situation of the KRG
 
The ISIS offensive has put the Iraqi Kurds into a state of alarm. There are two dimensions of it. The KRG military forces started an activity for both protecting their borders and establishing control over the regions that the Kurds want to acquire. The KRG, benefiting from a fait accompli, deployed the Pashmarga to Mosul, Kirkuk, Salahaddin, Diyala and Tuz Khurmato, which were evacuated by the Iraqi army, prior to the ISIS advance. Therefore, the KRG expanded its territory and acquired advantage in the contested regions. Besides, it has now de facto control over vast oil reserves, and limits Baghdad’s leverage about the oil revenues problem. Now it seems that both the KRG and ISIS benefit from the situation at hand and therefore they invoke a perception of “common enemy”. Thus, the KRG seeks to expand its borders and sphere of influence at the expense of the Iraqi government and therefore dominate the contested regions. ISIS, however, directly targets the Iraqi government. After the Iraqi army withdrew from Mosul, Tikrit, Kirkuk and Diyala because of the ISIS advance, the Pashmarga captured the city centers and checkpoints. For this reason, it make sense to claim that the ISIS advance was in favor of the KRG and enabled it to capture the regions it wanted and acquire an advantage against the Iraqi government. However, if the ISIS’s and the KRG’s claims intersect on the same area, it is highly likely that they have an armed confrontation.
 
The ISIS Operations and the Turkmens
 
The Turkmens suffered the most from the ISIS operations. That is because; the ISIS advance was headed towards the regions that the Turkmens inhabit. The Turkmens face another risk since the KRG forces move in after the Iraqi army’s withdrawal. The Pashmarga captured Kirkuk, Tuz Khurmato, Haneqin and Jalaula, the cities, which the Turkmens defended against the Kurdish control for years. Therefore, the Turkmens remain between the hammer and the anvil. They have more difficulty since they do not have an armed militia. Besides, in the ISIS-controlled provinces, there are Shiite Turkmens. ISIS killed lots of Turkmens in its attack on Tal Afar, Tazekhurmato and Beshir in Kirkuk, and Tuz khurmato. Thousands of Turkmens were forced to relocate from Tal Afar and Tuz Khurmato. Besides, ISIS captured some Turkmen villages around Kirkuk and Tuz Khurmato. Even though the Turkmens started to form an armed militia, they do not have the capacity to fight against both ISIS and the Pashmarga. Moreover, Turkmens will directly suffer from an operation by the Iraqi army against ISIS or the Pashmarga in the north of Iraq. The Turkmens will be at the center of the clash between ISIS, the Pashmarga and the Iraqi security forces.