The View From Iraq After Maliki’s Victory

The State of Law Coalition led by Nouri el-Maliki that formed the government for two terms after 2005 and 2010 elections, won the parliamentary election on 30 April 2014. The State of Law Coalition that won 92 seats achieved a great chance to form the government by getting far ahead of its nearest rival with more than 60 seats.

The State of Law Coalition also had success in gaining representatives in some provinces, such as Mosul, Diyala and Salah ad-Din, to not attend elections on their own, but to form an alliance. The most important factor of this 'success' is Maliki who managed to keep his party going in spite of the defiance in the government for the last 2 years.

In Anbar district, Maliki’s struggles against ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) made him a hero in the eyes of Shias who are the main electorates and strengthened his position before elections. Using military power of the government substantially made Maliki more powerful.

The attitude of Iraq’s Shiite Prime minister after 2010 annoyed many people including some Shiite parties. In this regard, the policy of Nouri el-Maliki, who will possibly form a government again and become a prime minister, during and after the formation of a government, will highly affect the stability and security of Iraq.

Maliki feels very powerful because of the current situation. He may follow the same policy in the following days by believing his harsh attitude after 2010 elections brought him success. Because, unlike 2005 and 2010, it is expected for this term that Maliki forms a majority government rather than a national unity government which consists of each group represented in the Iraqi parliament.

Almost all of the Shiite Parties have an intention to participate in the new government. Thus, a committee consisting of people from different Shiite parties started to negotiate in Iraq soon after the elections. In the meantime, National Alliance created by Shiite parties made a new decision in the meeting concerning common action about the government. This enlarged the Maliki’s maneuvers. Iraqi High Islamic Council plans to boost its position to become the second party in Iraq and among the Shiites and to play an active role within the government.

The Islamic Virtue Party that won 6 seats and The National Reform Movement led by previous Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari have positive approach towards the government Maliki will form. It is foreseen that Maliki will maintain his political attitude and be insistent about forming a government. Even if he doesn’t set up a government in a short period of time, Maliki will feel comfortable as the head of the previous government.

The balance between Sunnis-Kurds and Shiites in Iraqi politics

In order to form a government in Iraq, the approval of 165 MPs is required. When the number of the MPs of Shiite parties is counted, it is more than the numbers required. However, it cannot be said that Maliki is very eager to form this kind of a government. Unless Maliki is forced, he won’t want to form a government with 165- 170 MPs, which is a minimum number and he will at least aim to increase the number of MPs to hold the majority in case there are some resignations in the government. Moreover, a government only composed of Shiites gets the reactions either in Iraq or from other countries.

Since Muqtada al-Sadr, who is an important Shiite figure, announced his withdrawal from the political scene and his negative approach towards Maliki continues, it should be taken into account that Al-Ahrar bloc led by Muqtada al-Sadr may stay out of the government. By staying out of the government, Al-Ahrar bloc prevents the government to be considered as a Shiite government. At this point, how Maliki convinces Kurdish people will directly affect the future and the position of the government. Whether Kurdish people act collectively about the central government in Baghdad will be a milestone.

There are some serious difficulties for Kurdistan Regional Government about forming a government.  Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) under the leadership of Jalal Talabani who is the President of Iraq and has health problems for a long time doesn’t accept to make a deal with Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Mused Barzani because they are not content with the position in the government. Gorran tries to form a government with Kurdistan Islamic Party (Yekgirtû) and Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal).

It is, therefore, possible that the PUK can act differently from other Kurdish parties concerning the participation in the government in Baghdad. Even if all of the Kurdish parties stated that they would adopt common attitudes against Baghdad about national subjects, PUK’s attitudes may vary. Besides, it is known that Gorran and Islamic Parties want to take place in Iraqi central government.

Especially, Gorran (change) party tries to transform its opposition attitudes to an effective participation by changing generally its policy. Gorran, the only opposition party of Maliki government in 2010 in the parliament, tries to participate in the government in Erbil and Baghdad. By taking into account that all Kurdish Parties but KDP have good relationships with Maliki or at least there is no tension between Maliki and these parties, Kurdish parties, except for KDP, may put pressure on KDP to participate in the government.

KDP may adopt a moderate approach about joining the government in Baghdad even if Barzani indicates that they won’t take place in the government of Maliki in order not to disrupt the unity of Kurdish people. Just after America’s invasion of Iraq in 2003, the cooperation between Kurdish people and Shiites should be noted. This situation may improve the relations between Erbil and Baghdad.

The government in Erbil is not financially self-sufficient. As known, since the budget problems couldn’t be solved, Kurdistan Regional Government cannot pay salaries. Clearly, Erbil requires to improve the relations with Baghdad and to be active in Iraqi central government.

Sunnis, the most disadvantaged group during the formation of a government in Iraq, are in a difficult position. The big Sunni Groups which participate in the 2014 elections with a divided structure cannot even have the MPs number in total that the State of Law coalition got on its own. The Mutahhidun bloc led by Usama al-Nujayfi fell behind the expected seats by not achieving its potential. This makes Maliki hold this situation over Sunni tribes. Nevertheless, it can be estimated that Maliki will invite Sunnis to participate in the government but he won’t make much effort to convince them.

It is possible that Al-Arabiya Coalition which won 10 MPs under the leadership of Mutlaq join the government by taking into account that Salih Mutlaq who is one of the most important politicians and has good relations with Maliki. The participation of Al-Arabiya in the government may be considered as a step to remove the criticism that Maliki “excludes Sunnis from the power.” However, the reaction of Sunnis may increase because Nujayfi and Allawi stayed out of the government, which may worsen the distinction between Shiites and Sunnis and deteriorate sectarian tension.

Turkey-Iraq Relations for Maliki’s possible government

Since Maliki win the elections and will form a government, Iraq and Turkey relations will be affected. Turkey didn’t directly support any bloc or group in 2014 Iraqi elections. However, because there is good relations with Usama al-Nujayfi who is the head of Muttahidun Coalition and because Iraqi Turkmen Front participates in the elections with Muttahidun Coalition outside Kirkuk, it brings Turkey’s direct support in 2010 elections into minds.

However, since Ankara tried to rebuild relations with Baghdad and took Baghdad’s initiative into the consideration in Baghdad-Erbil petrol crisis, the relations between Turkey and Iraq starteed to improve. Baghdad became more moderate against Ankara in this process. It is clear that either side doesn’t gain from this tension or it is understood that determining common interests and threats is more beneficial for these two countries.

Since the civil war affects both Turkey and Iraq negatively and the groups like ISIS are considered as a common threat, Maliki who had hard times in the country had to be moderate against other countries. While Maliki confronts Erbil, he avoided standing against Ankara.

Nevertheless, if Maliki who won the elections forms a government with great supports of the country and if Ankara tilts the balance between Baghdad and Erbil in favor of Erbil, Ankara and Baghdad relations may get tense again. It can be said that the relations would be remain the same if Maliki follows a balanced policy for his new term.