We live in interesting times in the KRG. Power play is reaching its pick. Masoud Barzani, the current president of the Kurdistan region of Iraq seems indecisive in insisting on the legality of another tenure. But really, the question is not whether he has a legal base to make himself a candidate or not since he can do so in a way or the other; rather whether he has enough popular base to guarantee his re-election.
When it comes to the issue of legality, there are certain major documents to review: the constitution draft and law of presidency. In the constitution draft, each eligible candidate has a right to two sessions in the presidency office.(1) However, since the draft is not yet approved, it’s not in effect. Another document which is more consistent is the law of presidency in the Kurdistan region (2005) where only two terms are allowed for any president. However, since the document is approved slightly after the first term of Barzani, he may claim that his first term was not the subject of this law and claim the right of presidency for the next election. At the end of the day, the authority in KRG can make it legal if they want it so.(2)
As we said above, the question is not about legality but about the chances of re-election. Opposition parties, currently with more than 30% of the parliament are not going to vote for Barzani as they rejected a proposal for giving Barzani two more years in presidency office.(3) The more tricky position is that of PUK. PUK is intentionally playing a game of getting the most from his allainces. Although public may have convinced that PUK is still very much dependent on KDP, but the conflict between PUK high-ranking cadres and public demand for a different stance may change PUK overnight.
Barzani knows that very well. That’s why he is still silent. He does not give even signals. Last week, a delegation from KDP and PUK high cadres visited all the opposition groups asking for two more years for Barzani. However Barzani urged the higher independent commission of elections to set a time for all elections, including presidency not longer than September 9, 2013.(4) The statement came even before the opposition rejects the joint proposal. To make everything more interesting, the spokesman of KDP denied all the ‘claims’ that they had asked for lengthening Barzani’s tenure in office for two years.(5)
Barzani is not sure that he will be re-elected, that’s why he is waiting for more signals. He is very irritated by PUK’s position. PUK wants to exploit the office of presidency to gain whatever they want in the KRG, as KDP did to PUK last time for the position of Iraqi presidency. It’s very hard for KDP to imagine a position weaker than its current, while he must accept so. To get re-elected, one may easily expected a new draft of the strategic alliance between the two powers (PUK and KDP) where the power sharing is more even than now. It’s interesting for KDP like a final touch, but is it really a final touch for Barzani?
No. Barzani knows very well that PUK members are not bound to the commands of their higher cadres when it comes to the matters related to KDP, especially when Talabani is in a comma. If the opposition parties put a candidate forward and throw their support behind him against Barzani, it will be a nightmare for him. Because he is certain that not all PUK members will vote for him, let alone opposition parties. That’s why the joint delegations were not really for lengthening the tenure as KDP rejects, but to see if the opposition has the intention of electing a candidate or not.
As many other leaders in KRG, a revolutionary leader like Barzani does not easily compromise nor he accepts defeat. If he knows there is a slightest chance of losing, he will not take part in the elections. That’s why if Barzani insists of re-election, the shortcoming is either from opposition parties to their promise of not supporting any eligible candidate, or to more intimate measures like changing the election results. This game of thrones gets more interesting each day. Now, can the opposition seize the day and put an effort to change?! That depends on all other elements of the equation. One of them is: whether KDP insists on preventing such a move through any available tools? About these last questions, I have a feeling that the former is ‘Yes’ but what if the latter is also ‘Yes’?
Sources
(1) Consitution of Iraqi Kurdistan region
http://www.kurdipedia.org/books/62413.PDF
(2) KDP spokesperson statement on presidency tenure lengthening demand by KDP and PUK
http://rudaw.net/sorani/kurdistan/110420133
(3) Opposition parties reject the proposal of two more years for Barzani
http://www.sbeiy.com/Detail.aspx?id=18672&LinkID=4
(4) Barzani calls for setting election dates
http://rudaw.net/sorani/kurdistan/0804201312
(5) KDP spokesperson rejects the so-called demands of lengthening Barzani’s tenure
http://rudaw.net/sorani/kurdistan/110420133
