“Regional Security and Cooperation Perspectives in the Black Sea in the aftermath of Recent Developments in Ukraine”

7 minute reading time

The crisis in Ukraine has begun in February 2014 with the ouster of Viktor Yanukovich and escalated with the annexation of Crimea by Russia on March 19 2014. It also involved armed conflict between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels in the east of the country. Lately, several new developments have caused the crisis enter a new period. First is the natural gas deal between Ukraine, Russia and the European Union on 30 October 2014. Second is the parliamentary elections that was held in Ukraine on 26 October 2014.
 
As a new period in the Ukraine crisis looms ahead, Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), Center for Strategic Research (SAM) and TOBB Economy and Technology University have organized a conference on 3 November 2014 entitled “Regional Security and Cooperation Perspectives in the Black Sea in the aftermath of Recent Developments in Ukraine”. The speakers in the conference were the Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey, His Excellency Mr. Sergiy Korsunsky, Ambassador (Rtd.) Mr. Alev Kılıç, Director of AVIM (Center for Eurasian Studies) and Associate Professor Mr. Emre Erşen from Marmara University. Associate Professor Mr. Şaban Kardaş, Director of ORSAM, has moderated the conference, which was initiated by the introductory speech of Assoc. Prof. Mr. Haldun Yalçınkaya, Chair, TOBB-ETÜ Department of International Relations.
 
H.E. Mr. Korsunsky took the floor after the introductory speech. After giving a brief summary of the Ukraine crisis, he went on to present his views on the matter. According to Mr. Korsunsky, Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis is not an attempt to destroy Ukraine, but an attempt aimed at altering the international security infrastructure in the Russia’s immediate neighborhood. Reiterating Ukraine’s reactions toward the annexation of Crimea by Russia, Mr. Ambassador talked about Russia’s plans to transform Crimea into a military base. He also mentions the increase in Russian Black Sea Fleet by 80 new warships and ongoing aerial intrusions of neighbor countries’ airspace by Russian aircrafts. In Mr. Korsunsky’s view, Russia, by attempting to gain leverage in the Black Sea, acts against the interests of three NATO member countries in the region, namely Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. Mr. Ambassador, then, went on to describe the current conflict in the east of Ukraine as a “hybrid war”. It includes cyber war in social media and information war beside military operations. Having talked about the Russian media’s distortion of the reality on the ground, Mr. Korsunsky invited all who wants to see the truth to Ukraine, where two elections have taken place and 29 parties have competed in the elections. He emphasized that moderate EU supporters are represented in the political system, the revolution is over and social and economic developments are being implemented. According to Mr. Ambassador, Ukraine seeks to improve dialogue with NATO, without seeking membership and to work bilaterally with partners, especially Turkey. Warning that the Russians might seek to review the Montreaux Convention of 1936, he concluded his speech by stressing that it is very important for Turkey to know what is going on is not only about Ukraine, but also about a nuclear power seeking to reshape international security structure.
 
Ambassador (Rtd.) Alev Kılıç, Director of AVIM, started his speech by reiterating that Turkey is on the side of the West regarding the Ukraine crisis. He then went on to explain the historical depth of the Turkish-Ukraine relations, which are not limited to 1992, when the diplomatic relations were established. The history of the relations can be traced back to the Ottoman period. Therefore, According to Mr. Kılıç, what goes on in Ukraine touches Turkey as well, since the Crimean Tartars formed the 13% of the population of Crimea. After that, he contrasted Turkish and Russian concepts of Eurasia. The Turkish concept of Eurasia implied the shift of gravity in world politics to the east, which moved Turkey from its periphery location to a status of nexus between the Asia-Pacific and the West. However, the Russian concept of Eurasia implied Russian political and economic dominance in the former Soviet territories. In this context, Mr. Kılıç considers Turkey’s initiatives in the Black Sea, the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), and the naval patrol Blackseafor as a concept for regional economic and security cooperation. He emphasized that Russia had had the right to use the Sevastopol naval base until 2045, therefore Russia’s main interest in the Black Sea is military bases. This situation involves Turkey with regard to the Montreaux Convention. According to Mr. Kılıç, Turkey needs to be meticulous and bipartisan while dealing with the problems around the Black Sea region. He emphasized that Moldavia and Ukraine have peculiar positions in the region and Ukraine has been a stage for proxy conflict between the West and Russia.
 
Assoc. Prof. Emre Erşen announced that he would touch upon the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine crisis for world politics and Turkey. He emphasized that after the Global Financial Crisis, the West was negatively affected and the other powers such as Russia, India and China rose to prominence. Having mentioned the rising influence of the G-20, Dr. Erşen explained the Russia-China natural gas deal, diplomatic and institutional alliance (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and the possibility that the Western sanctions might push Russia closer to China. Then, he evaluated Russia’s bid for the Eurasian Economic Union that will go into effect in 2015. Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Tajikistan are already included in its customs union with Russia. This project is currently in conflict with the European Union’s Eastern Partnership initiative that penetrates into former Soviet territory. Moldavia and Georgia are deeply involved in the EU’s initiative. Dr. Erşen also talked about NATO’s enlargement towards the Black Sea. Keeping Georgia and Ukraine’s dialogue with NATO in consideration, NATO is involved in five of the six countries of the Black Sea region, a fact that Russia considers as hostile. Dr. Erşen included energy issues in his speech as well. He mentioned the EU’s efforts for finding an alternative route to Russia. He emphasized that the Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP) can be a good alternative. Having reiterated the advantages regarding the South Stream project that Russia has gained through the annexation of Crimea, Dr. Erşen talked about the rising importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas reserves and Russia’s bid for influence there, through improving relations with Syria and Egypt. Having elaborated energy issues, Dr. Erşen started to evaluate the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine crisis for Turkey. He stated that Turkey-Ukraine relations is a strategic partnership, especially after former Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Ukraine in January 2011, which involved the founding of a High Level Strategic Council and talks for a free trade agreement and abolition of visas. Noting that it is hard for Turkey to alienate Russia, due to trade and energy links, Dr. Erşen states that it at least can play a mediator and/or an honest broker role. He concludes by emphasizing that Ankara will closely watch Ukraine for the Black Sea geopolitics, the Crimean Tartars and Turkish interests regarding energy.
 
Following the speeches, the conference closed with question-answer session and an open discussion on the future of the relations. The speakers have found the opportunity to elaborate their views in accordance with the questions by the participants.