Are Turkmens the Victims of the Middle East Project?

When the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) first appeared in Syria in 2013, it did not attack the regime forces and began to create its own territory. Its first target was unarmed Turkmen regions. It first attacked the Turkmen areas such as Jarabulus, Bashkoy, Cobanbeyli. Again ISIS attacked Tal Afar and Sinjar in June 2014 shortly after it attacked Mosul and seized control of one third of Iraq’s territories. One year passed since ISIS established sovereignty in Iraq’s territories. The USA has been carrying out air strikes on ISIS for months. Al-Hashd al-Shaabi (People’s Mobilization) founded after the fatwa of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani calling for jihad following the invasion of Mosul by ISIS and supported by Iran is stationed in each of the territories in Iraq. It is likely that the territories saved by Al-Hashd al-Shaabi might be captured by ISIS again. However, the overall territory under ISIS control has only slightly changed until today.

So who makes a profit out of these developments? The USA has been testing its new weapons on Iraq and Syria. The Kurds have been doubling their territories in Iraq and Syria. Kirkuk’s future is completely left in hands of Kurdistan Regional Government. Iran has been gradually increasing its influence on Iraq. The influence of the Shia has been growing on some of the Sunni regions. These developments are most certainly to the disadvantage of the Turkmens, both in Iraq and Syria. Today 800 thousand Turkmens 500 thousand of which are in Iraq and 300 thousand of which are in Syria had to leave their homes. Critical Turkmen cities such as Tal Afar, Yaycili and Bashir in Iraq are still under ISIS control. Some of the Iraqi Turkmens were dispersed into different parts of the country whereas others came to Turkey. The more the incidents grow, the more the Turkmens begin to become smaller and even (unfortunately) split up.

The Context of Syria
At this point, the situation should be examined at first in the context of Syria. The dramatization of what happened in Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) enables the Syrian Kurdish Government to arise in the region. It has also been controversial that the support of Northern Iraq Government to this operation has passed through the territories of Turkey. This development reminds of the safety zone established in 1990 in Iraq and lasted for 13 years. This situation brought about the foundation of Iraqi Kurdistan that was approved by The Constitution of Iraq. This government has been sponsoring the project of forming a Kurdish region in the north of Syria.

After Kobani, also Tell Abyad only 10% of which are Kurdish fell under control of PYD which is the leader of Syrian Kurdish movement after ISIS' withdrawal. Thus, PYD dominated an area in Syria which is 400 km from the Iraqi border by means of ISIS. If its scope of dominance continues to expand up to Afrin with this strategy, it is likely that it will reach the Hatay border in Turkey. That is, the Kurdish actors will possess the Arab and Turkmen regions from the Iran-Turkey border to Hatay border and the channels enabling to reach the rest of the Middle East.

It is the Turkmens and Sunni Arabs who have suffered from the foundation of a Kurdish region in Syria. Although Salih Muslim, the chairman of PYD tells that “rest assured that the Turkmens in the region will not be harmed”, it is hard to believe. Because the same statement came from Masoud Barzani regarding the Turkmens living in Erbil; today the Turkmens of Erbil have been assimilated into the Kurdish society.

The Context of Iraq
At this point, it is essential to mention the context of Iraq. If four countries were not able to tackle a terrorist organization in one year, it means this organization is either extraordinarily powerful or these countries are not sincere enough in their fight against it. Even though the whole world has been condemning ISIS, it has not been possible to handle this organization so far. This fact raises question marks in minds. It is a known fact that the foundation, expansion and rapid enlargement of this organization have been unprecedented compared to other organizations. Despite the fact that it is possible to check every single thing through the satellites in the global world, it has not been possible to eradicate the resources of ISIS so far and this raises a lot of suspicions. In this context, it is helpful to examine the regional actors.

ISIS has been displaying a Salafist stance. It has blown up graves and demolished a thousand year old historical monuments. Their practices remind us of implementations in Saudi Arabia.  Moreover, Iran being no doubt the most obvious and determining actor of the region has made its presence felt not only in Iraq but also in the Middle East. It is claimed that Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have received support from Iran and also Damascus where Bashar al-Assad leaves is protected by 7,000 Iranian soldiers. Iraq not having been able to establish the corporate structure of the army for 12 years prefers to fight against ISIS by means of Al-Hashd al-Shaabi. It is evident that this formation is predominantly Shiite and supported by Iran. In other words, ISIS is the poison and Iran is its antidote.

It is certainly the Kurds who are the primary beneficiaries of ISIS’ presence in Iraq. The Kurds have gained control in almost every disputed region to which they had claims after ISIS left. However, it is not hard to guess that the Kurds and Shiite Arabs will struggle with each other in case that ISIS is expelled from Iraq. It is not only in Iraq that the Kurds make use of the advances of ISIS. Today, the Kurdish regions in Iraq and Syria have merged de facto. The role of the USA in this merger is an undeniable fact. Most of the areas captured by the Kurds and ISIS in the two countries are both Turkmen regions. According to the President of the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) Arshad Salihi, the same game played in Syria is presented in Iraq. After the Turkmen regions that ISIS invaded are taken back, they were abandoned to the Kurds. Salihi expressed concerns by saying “Tell Abyad and Tal Afar are very much alike. ISIS had entered Tal Afar. Tal Afar that will be taken from ISIS with the help of the western countries and Peshmerga seem to have been determined as a Kurdish region".

The USA had stated at the beginning of the coalition operations that the fight against ISIS would last for a long time. It is suspicious that a country warns of a long-lasting war against a terrorist organization before starting the war. Is it a coincidence that the land over which ISIS has had control for one year in Iraq and two years in Syria has not shrunk but expanded gradually? Or is the USA trying to fool people?

When all these findings are taken into consideration, the following consequences might arise. Just like the Kurdistan stretching from the Hamrin Mountains (including Kirkuk) over the south of Mosul, the Syrian territory and Afrin emerged; today a Sunni Arab region might arise in the regions invaded by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkmen cities might arise such as Cobanbeyli and Tal Afar (on condition that they are Sunni regions) in this region. But it is probable that only Sunni Turkmens in Tal Afar will have the right to live there. In response to this, a Shiite Arab region from the Hamrin Mountains to Basra will emerge automatically. Considering that now Al-Hashd al-Shaabi dominates Tuz Khormato that is predominantly Turkmen, perhaps the Turkmen regions up to Diyala including Taze Hurmatu, Tavuk, Biravcılı, Amirli, Bashir on the south of Kirkuk might be included in the Shiite Arab region. Kirkuk is now a town included in the Kurdish region de facto and the Turkmens will be considered within Kurdistan just like Erbil Turkmens along with some supplementary rights.

It can be said that big states will not object such a formation. The presence of the Turkmens in Kirkuk, Erbil, Tal Afar, Tuz Khormato and Aleppo is obviously not an obstacle to the previous scenario. With the recent steps taken, the power of the Turkmens has been reduced to such an extent that they no longer constitute a threat. It is observed that a year old trend leads us to that point. If this scenario comes true, maybe ISIS will be eradicated by itself.

What can Turkey do?
The 21st century has brought great incidents to the Middle East. It is more likely that these turbulences might separate countries in the region other than uniting them. For the time being, the countries suitable to this separation are Syria and Iraq. The Turkmens in Aleppo, Syria have been almost eliminated by ISIS.  Few numbers of Bayır-Bucak Turkmens are trying not to leave their homes in Latakia. The Shia Turkmens in Tal Afar migrated to Najaf and Karbala, the majority of the Sunni Turkmens migrated to other regions of Iraq and Turkey.

Turkey has distanced itself from Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq from 2003 until 2008. However, it is right to say that the relations which got better after 2008 and were made official since 2011 proved advantageous mostly to the Kurds. Within the context of the new developments in the region and relations, it is obvious that Turkey should take decisive steps in order for the Turkmens not to get harm from these developments. Turkey on the one hand by cooperating with regional and world countries must prevent the Kurds from conducting expansionist policies which are beyond their demands of security and on the other hand, provide solutions to the disorder of the Turkmens and other problems they face today. Also in order to create immediate and radical solutions in the fight against ISIS, a comprehensive strategy must be developed. Only in this way, peace and permanent stability can be maintained to some extent in the region.

This article was published in Ortadoğu Analiz journal with the title of "Are Turkmens the Victims of the Middle East Project?”