Arguments on Safe Havens in Syria: Risks, Opportunities and Scenarios for Turkey

It has been the 1st anniversary of Syria unrest. The violence across the country continues at full steam. Even though fortresses of the resistance fall one after another, it seems almost impossible to suppress the unrest in Syria after this stage. Lastly, Baba Amr, which is considered to be the fortress of Syrian opposition, was seized by the regime forces after the military operation organized in Homs, center of the unrest. However, this situation only leads to the change in the location of the aforesaid center. Nowadays, the military operations of the Syrian army have been continuing in Idlib. As a result, there has been a considerable increase in the number of Syrian guests arriving in Hatay.

The whole world has been striving to be able to find a solution to the Syrian crisis. In this respect, different opinions come to the forefront. In addition to the approaches such as inducing the Assad regime to change the policy through sanctions and pressure, more strict suggestions come to the forefront such as providing Syrian dissidents with arms aid especially by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These subjects were handled during the Friends of Syria conferences, the first of which was held in Tunisia and the second in Istanbul. On the other hand, the efforts of Kofi Annan, who was appointed as the UN special envoy to Syria, to solve the problem through diplomatic methods still continue. The Annan Plan, which was prepared as a result of the talks held with all parties, was accepted by the Syrian regime. Everybody expects the solution of the problem through peaceful means, but how Syria or dissidents will respond to the calls within the plan is an important question mark.

Another subject coming to the forefront during this process is the establishment of safe haven on Syrian territories in the Turkey-Syria frontier zone. There have been two important developments aggravating these arguments. The first one is the increase in the number of Syrian people immigrating to Hatay in the recent period, and Turkey’s efforts to take precautions. The second, on the other hand, is the statements of Prime Minister Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Davutoğlu regarding that the safe haven issue was discussed.

We expect that the ORSAM report entitled, “Arguments on Safe Haven in Syria: Risks, Opportunities, and Scenarios for Turkey”, prepared by Oytun Orhan, will shed light on the aforesaid arguments. In this study, you will find information related to demographic, geographic and political environment of the Turkey-Syria borderline, and you will also find safety evaluations carried out based on the aforesaid information. Considering these evaluations, maps of the alternative safe haven lines are also included in the study. We bring the study to the public attention hoping it contributes to the arguments on safe haven, and we extend our thanks to those who contributed.