Dr. Avinoam Idan From Haifa University at ORSAM

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Avinoam Idan from Haifa University paid a visit to ORSAM on October 21, 2009. During his visit a meeting was held with ORSAM experts and consultants. The main topic of the meeting was recent issues in Turkey-Israel relations that caused tensions. Alongside Avinoam Idan, the participants to the meeting were ORSAM President Hasan Kanbolat, ORSAM Consultants Habib Hürmüzlü, Serhat Erkmen, Kürşad Turan, Bayram Sinkaya; ORSAM Middle East Experts Oytun Orhan, Bilgay Duman, and ORSAM Middle East Assistant Researchers Ufuk Döngel and Sercan Doğan.

In the first part of the meeting, Mr. Idan talked about his recent visit to Azerbaijan. Being an expert on Caucasus himself, Mr. Idan also touched the sensitive issue of the opening of Turkish-Armenian border. In this context, he expressed the concerns and doubts on the part of the Azerbaijan side that whether Turkey would consider its rapprochement with Armenia and the Nagorno Karabakh issue together. He also stressed that relations with Georgia and Turkey constitute the main pillar of the foreign policy of Azerbaijan. At this point, ORSAM Expert Oytun Orhan asked why Russia supports the development of relations between Armenia and Turkey since it would mean Armenia’s opening to the West. In his reply, Mr. Idan emphasized that Turkey would not constitute an alternative to Russia for Armenia on many dimensions, especially in the field of energy and this process would not hurt Russian interests. After pointing out that Russia has more confidence in its Caucasus policies after the Georgia War of Summer 2008, Mr. Idan put that opening of the Turkish-Armenian border is perceived as another gateway to the South by Russia. He also expressed that the process constitutes a win-win situation for all sides and the Turkey-Armenia agreement is rather a Turkey-Russia agreement. In response to ORSAM Consultant Bayram Sinkaya’s question about the impacts of this process on Iran’s Caucasus policies, Mr. Idan said that Iran had ties with Armenia and no significant change is expected.

In the second part of the meeting, Avinoam Idan talked about the Israeli perspective about the recent developments in Turkey-Israel relations. Mr. Idan told that incidents that caused tension, especially the Davos incident, left significant impacts on the Israeli public and decision makers, and that it is being wondered whether those developments are solely linked to domestic policy in Turkey. According to Mr. Idan, the important point is the way in which those developments take place; therefore the style adopted by the Turkish side during the transmitting of messages constitutes the crises, rather than the content of the messages. He expressed that incidents such as the Davos incident have great deal of publicity and the style of Turkish side was not what it should be. In this context, he put forward Israel’s hopes that such an incident would not happen again. Besides these, Mr. Idan put that the level of the decision makers joining the October 29 Reception of Turkey in Tel Aviv would show the level of the relations. He also stressed that participation to the October 29 reception was at its highest level last year. Mr. Idan expressed that the reception issue poses a great dilemma in Israel. In reply to ORSAM Middle East Assistant Researcher Ufuk Döngel’s question about the future of Turkey-Israel relations, Mr. Idan pointed out to the perception that criticizing Israel is beneficial since it is being perceived as a precondition to have better relations with Arab countries. At this point, ORSAM Middle East Expert Oytun Orhan questioned the domestic policy factor in the recent crises in Turkey-Israel relations and mentioned some regional factors such as the shifting strategic geography in Middle East, the AKP’s perspective regarding Israel, and Israel’s position in Turkey’s Middle East policies. Mr. Orhan expressed that a strategic relationship with Israel is no longer perceived as sine qua non for Turkey. Besides, Mr. Orhan put that Turkish foreign policy has become much more sensitive towards the Turkish public opinion, which has been mostly anti-Israel. ORSAM Consultant Bayram Sinkaya commented on the issue that unlike Iran, Turkey recognizes Israel; however it also wants Israel to withdraw from West Bank and Gaza. Mr. Idan elucidated that political geography has a considerable influence on the decision makers and Israel does not have a strategic depth. In this context, Mr. Idan pointed out the importance of the Golan Heights as well as West Bank and Gaza. He conveyed that those factors affect the decision makers in Israel.