TURKEY’S CAUCASUS POLICY EVALUATED

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A conference on “Changes in Turkey’s Caucasus Policies and Its Options” was held jointly by the Middle East Strategic Research Center (ORSAM), the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), and the Caucasian Center For Strategic Studies (KAFSAM) in TEPAV’s conference hall on April 14, 2009. The head of ORSAM, Hasan Kanbolat, the director of TEPAV, Güven Sak, the head of the Foundation of Caucasus Associations, Cihan Candemir, the Bursa deputy, Onur Öymen, Professor Mustafa Aydın from TOBB ETU, and Assistant Professor Murat Çelikpala presented their evaluations.

“The Sluggishness of Turkey-Azerbaijan Relations Must Be Surpassed”

The head of ORSAM, Hasan Kanbolat, stated that 40% of Turkey’s population consists of the descendants who were forced to immigrate from the Black Sea and Aegean basins to Anatolia, and he said that these regions are especially important To Turkey. Kanbolat said that Turkey had ignored the Caucasus politically until the dissolution of the USSR in the early 1990s, when it began to try to compensate for this memory loss and began to examine its neighbourhood closely.

Claiming that the European-Atlantic world had made big gains against the Russian Federation in struggle for ascendancy in the Caucasus region between August 1991 and 2008, Kanbolat said the balances had been reversed by the Russian-Georgian war. Kanbolat, pointing out that US Republicans and the Saakashvili government has misrouted the process by Latin Americanizing Georgia instead Europeanizing it, stated that this situation gave rise to possible external interventions and a deficient democracy for the public.

Touching on the relations between Turkey and Armenia, Kanbolat pointed out that the two parties had many historic issues, but that throughout their entire history, the problematic issues have been foregrounded excessively. Kanbolat stated that opening Turkey’s borders to Armenia would be a proper decision, but that relations with Azerbaijan should not be neglected. Underlining the sluggishness of relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan, Kanbolat urged that the relations be left to flow, rather than creating new ideas and projects on common policies. Kanbolat suggested a think tank be established in order to improve policies for a long term strategic partnership between Ankara and Baku.

“Foreign Policy is Chess, Not Backgammon”

TEPAV’s director, Güven Sak, stated that, since the Caucasus was an important trade route between East and West, in this sense Turkey might become a logistic base, and stability in Caucasus is of major importance. “Turkey’s undertaking more important roles depends on region’s stability. The stronger the Caucasus, the more profitable Turkey will be,” he said. During the rest of his speech, Sak remarked on the deficit of medium-term thought in Turkey, adding, “We don’t know how to play chess. We are constantly playing backgammon. Namely, we throw the dice and move accordingly. However we aren’t able to make medium-term plans. As the playing piece changes, you have to change your position. If Turkey’s keeping the borders closed had not forced Armenia to change its policies, it would have been necessary to change our tools, or else add new ones.”

“The Information Flow from the Caucasus to Turkey Is Neither Accurate, Nor Adequate”

Candemir, the head of KAFFED, said that the public, as well as the decision makers in Turkey, are not informed accurately and adequately about developments in Caucasus. Recalling Churchill’s saying, “The first casualty of war is truth,” Candemir called on Turkey, which has millions of people of Caucasian origin, to develop closer relations with nations in the region. Candemir said that Turkey had abstained from establishing direct relations with Abkhasia in human, commercial and transportation affairs, and he added: “It is inconsistent not to recognize Abkhasia, when we recognize Kosovo. A consistent and principled foreign policy requires behaving in a different way, and it is sad that recognising the independence of a country depends on self-interest, rather than principle and law. Events show us that this is the case.”

“We Should Not Let Change Become a Complex”

Onur Öymen, deputy of Bursa, recalled that Turkey has supported the territorial integrity of nations by opposing the forced modification of borders in the Caucasus for a long time. The US and the EU put heavy pressure on Turkey to accept an actual state in the Caucasus, but he said that the reason for not opening Turkey’s borders was the occupation in Nagorno-Karabakh, rather than Armenian hostility or intention to punish its public. He continued, “Turkey made efforts to soften the Armenia government’s attitude. However, its efforts were not repaid. We shouldn’t ignore our problems with Armenia at the cost of neglecting Azerbaijan. Turkey is being asked to change and to accept practical politics, while the other countries are not changing their positions. We don’t need to panic. Also we don’t need to be in a mood for change. We need to free ourselves from the complex.”

“Since 8/8/2008 Things Have Not Fallen into Place”

Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın said that, since the Russian-Georgian war on August 8, 2008 changed the entire power balance of the Caucasus, regional policies have yet to fall into place, and the US and the EU have tried to develop new policies in the region. “Turkey, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan need to be on good terms with each other, and move forward to support regional stability,” he said.

“Turkey Is Having Difficulties in Diplomatic Practice”

Asst. Prof. Mitat Çelikpala said that Turkey had tried to define its Caucasus policy by triangulating domestic public opinion, regional equations and the global context, but that it had encountered difficulties in diplomatic practice due to the complex interaction between these factors. Çelikpala went on to say, “There are some questions in policy analysis about domestic policy, regional developments and the global level. If a matter is related to bilateral relations, it can be passed to a global platform, and courageous decisions may need to be modified. For this reason, we have some difficulties in evaluating, decision making and practice. Thus, some problems may emerge in terms of regional and global interests.” He said that the government made some steps during the last forty to fifty years of foreign policy towards a problem-free policy for its neighbors, but the public was not adequately informed about the content and aim of these steps, and ambiguities arose. Pointing out that Turkey’s Caucasus policy has maintained its stance favoring the protection of territorial integrity and human rights even after August 8, 2008, Çelikpala stated that this position is unsatisfactory to Caucasian actors and to domestic public opinion.