How and Under What Circumstances Could Iraq Be Split Up? Being Ready for the Worst

The political crisis, which broke out in Iraq short while after the withdrawal of the U.S., brought up the political developments in Iraq in the shadow of the developments centering around the Arab Spring to the agenda again. The stability and future of Iraq started to be discussed both in Turkey and in world public opinion, and many possibilities ranging from good to bad was reassessed. The possibility of Iraq's splitting has been brought up to the agenda on Turkish news and comments as well, and the arguments related to the solution of political crisis taking place in Iraq also started to be reflected in the press. 

It is not right to expect this dynamic and ambiguous process in Iraq to immediately turn into a big crisis in country in a short time. However, as all the developments taking place since the U.S. invasion of Iraq have showed over and over again, Iraq is becoming a country, which is getting hard to protect the territorial integrity and political unity with each passing day. It would be good to think the situation outside the box, rather than making simple predictions related to the future of Iraq, whose state authority was destroyed and where a healthy structure could not be established instead, and giving short answers to the question.      

In this study, Iraq's future is strived to be handled within the framework of the current developments in the country and the socio-political structure of the country. At the end of the study, the resulting table shows that there are 4 interrelated possibilities on the future of Iraq. Analyzing these scenarios, each of which are handled within the study, is increasing reasons for being pessimistic about the future of Iraq more and more with each passing day.