Iranian Politics after the Presidential Election

Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has won a landslide victory in the presidential elections held on May 19, and secured the second term in office. Approximately 73 per cent of the 55-million electorates went to the polls. Rouhani received 57 per cent of the casted votes by considerably improving his supporters in comparison to the previous presidential elections.  Having assessed objections and claims of irregularities made by some people including Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi, the leading contester against Rouhani, the Guardian Council confirmed the election results on May 30. Rouhani is expected to form his new cabinet in the forthcoming days. So, how will be the future of Iranian politics from now on?

Significance of the Elections

Many claim that Iranian elections are sham elections because the regime predetermines the results by means of vetoing candidates. Additionally, it is claimed that powers of the elected offices including the presidency have been severely constrained. In fact, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei possesses the real power in the country. Although such criticisms are valid to some extent, it does not mean that the presidential elections are completely insignificant. First, the presidency is the second most authorized position in the country. Even if the Supreme Leader determines the general policies, influence of the president in the process of decision-making and policy-making is undeniable. Moreover, the president who is in charge of the state apparatus implementing the political decisions has an undeniable significant position in the system. That's why; considerable differences may take place in domestic politics, economics and foreign policies – within the margins of general policies of the country  - after someone else replaces the office holder. Iranian people experienced well this case after the 2005 presidential elections. The eight-year presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad brought significant breaks and changes in Iranian politics, which also closely affected ordinary Iranian people. Therefore, presidential elections have been quite electrifying almost each time, and the voter turn out did not fall below 70 percent, even if elections are held within the frame of a narrow political arena. Additionally, the fact that candidates who are regarded to be favored by the Supreme Leader have failed to get office after some elections indicates the significance of voting.

The 12th presidential election held on My 19 was regarded to be important because of two additional factors. First there was question around whether President Rouhani could secure a second term. Although all presidents since 1981 have been consecutively elected for the second time, many observers doubted the possibility of Rouhani's second term. Due to his foreign, economic and cultural policies, President Rouhani has some times confronted the conservatives who consider themselves as the owner of the regime. He has also been subjected to Khamenei's direct and indirect censure regarding some developments. For this reason, many speculated about the confirmation of his candidacy by the Guardian Council. Additionally, the ongoing discussions over the nuclear deal and the anti-Iran statements of the US President Trump have shadowed Rouhani's biggest achievement in his previous term, the diplomatic solution of the nuclear issue, the removal of the nuclear-related sanctions, and the dilution of international pressure over Iran. On the other hand, the continuing distress of ordinary Iranian citizens despite recent improvements in economy was a major challenge for Rouhani. Likewise, there has been no significant improvement in areas such as political rights and freedoms, and human rights. For instance, the leaders of reformist Green Movement has kept being under house arrest and in the last four years, approximately three thousand people were executed for various reasons. The weaknesses of Rouhani in these have raised some doubts about his election success by maintaining the alliance, which had brought him to the presidency in 2013.

The second reason why the 12^th presidential elections were particularly important was the challenge of Ebrahim Raisi, who has been considered as Khamanei's favorite candidate and potential successor. His performance throug the elections could have determine both his political career and the future of Iran. Moreover, though he defined himself as bipartisan candidate, conservative and neo-radical parties unıted to endorse Raisi, which added further excitement to the elections.

During the election campaign, Raisi had three issues in his agenda: the economic failure of Rouhani's government, poverty and corruption. Raisi, who has accused Rouhani of managing the economy in accordance with the interest of foreigners and a group of minorities, promised to support domestic production, increase employment and advance the cash payments for the poor. On the other hand, Rouhani defended his own foreign and economic policy and built his campaign on the expansion of fundamental rights and freedoms, the maintenance of constructive engagement in foreign policy, the reinforcement of the private sector and the attraction of foreign capital to the country. Rouhani, who drew attention to Raisi's career as an attorney general and his relations with the Revolutionary Guards and neo-radicals, tried to consolidate his potential supporters who voted for him in the previous election, namely the young, women, minorities, reformists and technocrats. He claimed that if Raisi would take the office, Iran would enter a period full of tensions in foreign policy, and the domestic pressures would increase as in the Ahmadinejad period. He achieved to consolidate his supporters.

Agenda of Iranian Politics after the Election

The primary issue in the second period of Rouhani will be the struggle against unemployment and the economic development, which were prominent topics during the election campaign. According to the official figures, the unemployment rate is currently around 13 percent; however, unemployment especially among the youth is higher. Rouhani will likely adopt five policies in order to provide economic growth and to boost employment:

1.  The first policy is the reinforcement of the private sector. Although this issue has been on the agenda since the early 1990s, it is one of the structural weaknesses of the Iranian economy. The Iranian economy is largely in the hands of public institutions including military institutions and religious foundations. However, both the discourse of ‘resistance economy’, and the ‘existence of strategic sectors’ make it difficult to take further step in this respect.

2.  The second part of the economic policies is to increase share of non-oil products in the national income. The fluctuations in oil prices leave the Iranian economy in a difficult situation. Therefore, Iran aims to promote increasing non-oil products in exports, and concentrates on the long-term gas agreements. Significant improvements have been made in this regard. Iran already exports gas to Armenia and Iraq as well as Turkey. A number of agreements are also on the agenda to sell gas to Pakistan and India.

3.  The third element which will be highlighted in Rouhani's economy policy is tourism. In this context, he aims to renew the domestic and international civil aviation fleet and to improve hotel infrastructure. In 2015, approximately 5 million foreign tourists visited Iran. The government aims to raise this figure up to 20 million and to raise the tourism income to about 30 billion dollars by 2025.

4.  An important part of Rouhani’s economy policy, as it is shown in his previous term and promised in the election campaign is inviting foreign capital and investment to the country. In order to struggle against unemployment, in other words to create one million job opportunities per year, the government is projected to invest 200 billion dollars for the next 5 years, one third of which is supposed to be come through international investments. However, any attempt to attract further tourists and foreign capital faces serious criticism and opposition from the conservatives. In addition, some legal amendments need to be made in order to take effective steps in these areas. Therefore, it is expected that there will be heated discussions on these issues in the forthcoming period. On the other side, the ongoing sanctions on Iran poses serious challenges for the foreign investments.

5.  During his election campaign, Rouhani promised the removal of remaining sanctions on Iran, which will directly affect economy. However, the remaining international sanctions on Iran are imposed either because human rights violations, or because of alleged Iranian support for international terrorism, and its foreign policy. Therefore, the removal of remaining sanctions requires a comprehensive revision of Iranian foreign policy and domestic politics, which is highly difficult in the current political conditions. Moreover, the removal of sanctions on Iran is unthinkable in a period when the new US administration is committed to increase pressure over Iran.

Rouhani promised to strengthen fundamental rights and freedoms, improve socio-economic status of women, and improve political conditions of ethnic and religious minorities during his campaign. In this regard, he had issued a declaration named "The Charter on Citizens' Rights" in December 2016. In the forthcoming period, it may be expected that Rouhani will struggle to provide freedoms and rights indicated within this charter. However, the conservative front opposing Rouhani, and the increasing security concerns will make it difficult to take further steps in this regard.

In his first speech after the elections, Rouhani said, "Iranian people rejects extremism and wants more links with the outside world". In this context, emphasizing the achievements made in his previous period, especially the nuclear deal, Rouhani stated that the "constructive interaction" and "win-win" approach would continue in Iranian foreign policy. However, the changing American policies towards Iran make many in Iran to question the rationality of Rouhani foreign policy. Considering the recent change in the US-Iran relations, it is estimated that Iran will give priority to developing good relations with the European countries in the upcoming period.

Iran's Middle East policy is not expected to change significantly in the next four years. As a matter of fact, these policies were hardly questioned during the period of election campaign. It is claimed actually the Revolutionary Guards handles Iranian files towards the regional crises because they are deemed as primary security matters. In this respect, President Rouhani's approach is not different from the current Iranian rhetoric and policies. As a matter of fact, in the press statement after the election, he stated that the primary issue in Syria and Iraq is the "struggle against terrorism", and added that they would continue supporting the administrations in Baghdad and Damascus. However, the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is supported by Trump administration, and the proxy fights around the region are likely to increase in the forthcoming period. This may bring security institutions, the Revolutionary Guards, and security policies into prominence in Iran, and may restrict maneuver capability of Rouhani with regard to foreign policy, economy and politics.

There is no other election in Iran until February 2020. Therefore, it is expected that there will be relative stability in the elected offices and institutions. 40 per cent of the Iranian parliament, and most of the city councils are in the hands of pro-Rouhani people, which will help him. However, potential interventions of Supreme Leader Khamanei, the Guardian Council and the judiciary under the control of conservatives, and security and intelligence institutions may hinder some policies of the government, and weaken the president, as in the second term of the former president Mohammad Khatami. Recently increasing threats against Iran, and the rising security concerns may provide a justification for further securitization in the country, and containing President Rouhani.