October 2016 elections and thereafter in Morocco

Morocco that survived the Arab Spring with lesser damage compared to its circle in North African including Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syrian, Yemen, and Jordan in the Middle East owes it to the rapid response of the King Muhammed VI to the reform demand of Moroccan community. Moroccan women got the right to divorce among other many social ones, the Tamazigh language was officialized, and certain authorities of the King were delivered to the Representative Assembly at the end of the Constitutional reforms in the aftermath of the Arab Soring uprisings. Besides, an important step was taken in the electoral law, with the replacement of a coalition government necessity instead of single party rule by the first upcoming general election.

The tenth of postcolonial Morocco, the first one in post-Arab spring uprisings, then, took place on October 7th 2016, in the new format after the local elections were held in 2015. 16 million people who registered as voters in the 34 million people country went to the ballot boxes in 95 election regions to elect the 395 seat Representative Assembly. At the end of peaceful elections according to the reports received from Belgium and France, Justice and Development Party (JDP) that has been exercising the executive power of the government since 29 November 2011 got the title by replacing 129 seats in the Assembly, among 30 other political parties. The JDP was followed by Truth and Modernity Party (PAM) that won 103 seats, and the Istiqlal Party that led Morocco to the independence in 1956 became third by winning 40 seats. Eventually, the King Mohammed VI appointed Abdelilah Benkirane as the leader of the winning the JDP as Prime Minister, and gave him the authority to form a coalition government. All in all, the JDP was officially endowed the right to rule Morocco for five more years.

The JDP by October 2016 elections and Moroccan economy

A very tough period is waiting for the JDP that got the title in the 2016 elections now. Moroccan economy that was driven through a hardcore statism exhausted people. The shift of retirement age to 65 from 60, the addition of retired people’s salaries to the state fund, the 1.55 % actual growth rate instead of the promised 7 %, and several other extra taxes angered Moroccan people. Besides, the increase at the unemployment rate from 8 % in 2011 to 16 % in 2016 will make another headache for the JDP. When intra party and bureaucratic corruptions are taken into account, after all, it was not tough to imagine how stressful the JDP before the elections. The unique positive step taken by the JDP seems to drop the current account deficit that was 7.3 % of its GDP in 2012 to 4.3% in 2016. However, several economists explain it with the state’s reduction of subsidizes, decision to alter the extra working hours, decision to decrease contracted officers’ salary amount, and decision to stop the annual food and beverage support. As done in most of the African states, inflation rate was shown very low in Morocco too according to these economists, which were justified not by the assurance of the supply demand equilibrium but the reduced purchasing power at the end of all these economic arrangements. In this period, the global fall of oil prices worked in favor of the JDP, for instance oil was at least sold to 25-30 % cheaper prices in 2016 than the ones in 2015. Again, even if the foreign investments received from China (especially in solar energy sector) are referred as positive development, the neocolonialist style adopted by China in Africa does not let many Moroccans consider these investments as deliberate success.

The JDP and Moroccan Foreign Policy at the end of October 2016 elections

Another area that must be seriously taken care of is foreign policy by the JDP. Morocco seems to be isolated more and more in its close region over the Western Sahara issue. The aggressive Moroccan nationalism that revealed by the exclusion of the Special Envoy Christopher Ross in the mid-2016 was highly critical. That kind of nationalism, automatically, turned Sub-Saharan, Central And South American and European states against Morocco that suspended its bilateral relations with the European Union in April 2016 upon the Union’s decision to cancel two new agreements upon Ross’ expulsion. Morocco that claimed it was a European state in 1987 when it applied to the European Economic Community seems standing very close to stay without Europe with this suspension.

October 2016 Elections and the Governance of the JDP

Macroeconomics and foreign policy are not the only fields that the JDP should pay enough attention after 2016 elections. In domestic politics, for instance, the JDP must decay harassment and corruption claims. Accordingly, a party member sexually harassed a woman and another party member was screened when he was buying 3 tons of marijuana. Even though these two were rejected by the JDP, people reacted to the party that is known with the emphasis it has been giving to Islamic values and its conservative attitude. Second, the JDP highly neglected the national education. In the country where 20 % of university graduates are unemployed, the state did not take care of the annual reparations of university campuses, did not offer enough budget for the new academic semester. Courses in many high schools have been made in classes for 70 students. In some buildings, there is even no furniture.

October 2016 elections and other parties in Morocco

Results of 2016 elections in Morocco must also be analyzed in terms of rival parties to the JDP. Among them, the 2008 established PAM that ended the elections in the second ranking saw itself as the treatment of Islamism and declared that it would save Morocco from the PJD Islamism. The PAM that perceived Morocco as “a train that needs to be replaced on the railways as it was used to be” signaled that it would be strengthen in the next elections. Besides, the Istiqlal Party’s third ranking and loss of another election is to take notice. In this vein, a similarity is observed between the Istiqlal Party and the Republican People’s Party of Turkey that brought national independence to the Turkish Republic. These two parties led their states to independence, got the government power after they did it, but could not obtain the authority to set up a government in general elections except for some periods.

Even though two months were over the October 2016 elections, no clarity was found on the implementation of plans the PJD foresaw for Morocco. Benkirane said that the coalition meetings would be over by the end of November 2016, but no concrete steps were taken yet. Besides, Benkirane’s coalition search annoys some political parties that deserve to be in the coalition, according to the vote rate they got. Among these parties, the head of Public Movement (PM) Mohand Laeners criticized Benkirane’s attitude of surveilling the Qutla Parties (Istiqlal Party and Progress and Public Party (PPS)) only to form the coalition, and emphasized that he pushed Morocco into a political crisis. Moreover, Benkirane’s unsatisfactory willing to form the coalition and spending of his effort to intra party affairs such as the nomination of new General Secretary after his term is paid attention by King Mohammed VI. The King met Benkirane on December 24th 2016, and asked him to form the government as soon as possible.

Conclusion

A stagnancy and uncertainty has been dominant to the Moroccan politics since October 2016 elections until today. The reason for this situation is not only Benkirane’s slow motion actions to form the government but also the distrust that the Moroccan community has for the Moroccan politics and politicians. Many local and international media channels before the elections emphasized how Moroccan community does have little sympathy for the Moroccan domestic politics and politicians. Prominently, a community that has such little confidence on Moroccan politics is not expected to criticize Benkirane and to push him to form the government as soon as possible by forming a pressure.  

Morocco has tried to appease the stagnancy it had in domestic politics with foreign policy since October 2016. The last two months has focused on the King Mohamed VI’s official trips to Sub-Saharan Africa to revitalize Morocco’s readmission to the African Union that it had suspended in 1984, the COP 22 Summit on global climate, and the Western Sahara issue.  King Mohamed VI looked for some support in Rwanda, Tanzania, Madagascar and Ethiopia for Morocco’s readmission to the African Union, with the accompany of several Moroccan businessmen who signed a fertilizer factory settlement agreement in Ethiopia as a sign of Morocco’s increasing sphere of influence in East Africa. In December 2016, Moroccan corporations like MANAGEM invested 1000 million USD for gold mining in Guinea, in addition to CGELEC that signed a consortium agreement with the Ivorian Vinci Energies to construct a Thermal Energy Plant in Ivory Coast. Besides these economic steps, the organization of COP 22 in Marrakech was an important activity for Morocco. Talking of the Western Sahara issue, even though relations with Kuwait that did not boycott the participation of Sahraoui Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) to the 4th Arab-African Summit tensed, the Morocco- Kuwait Economic Form on December 27th-29th 2016 helped to soften bilateral relations. Moroccan foreign policy that goes into a new phase with Donald Trump’s presidency, obviously, will occupy minds of Moroccan community and state until the stagnancy in domestic politics is over. Benkirane, then, must work harder and more efficiently in this period, to form the government very soon.