Pre-election Political Balances in Iraq and Future Prime Minister

Parliamentary elections are to take place in Iraq on April 30 of next year. It is expected that these elections will probably be the last phase of the marathon that started in April this year with the two-phase governorate council elections and continued with the parliamentary elections of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
 
Of course, the governorate council elections in Kirkuk and the governorate council elections in the KRG will remain on the agenda. However, the fact that the provincial elections, which have not been held in these provinces because of political reasons since 2005, have consistently been postponed makes the local elections to be held in four provinces dependent on new balances that will be the result of the 2014 elections.
 
What is the importance of the upcoming elections to be held in six months? These elections in April will show whether a new period is going to begin in Iraq or not. First of all, unlike the 2010 elections, the new election law does no more require the formation of large coalitions before the elections. Therefore, prominent political parties or lists in Iraq do not have to form huge lists, consisting of many small groups.
 
On the contrary, as seen in this year's governorate council elections, the seats that minor parties and lists could win in different provinces might give them an advantage in terms of gaining more importance in the process of forming the new government.
 
Hence, Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition; the Al-Ahrar Bloc, which is considered the political party of the Sadr Movement; the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) led by Ammar al-Hakim; Osama al-Nujayfi's Mutahhidun Bloc; and Masoud Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) will set a strategy that aims to form the most optimal coalition, not the largest one, in the upcoming six months.
 
As indicated by the process following the governorate council elections, it is more critical to form the most optimal coalition after the elections, rather than receiving the highest number of votes. Thus, in the upcoming period, it is expected that the coalitions that might form an alliance after the elections will inflict less damage on one another during the election process.
 
It is hard to predict in advance under what circumstances the upcoming elections in Iraq, where security is getting worse with each passing day, will be held. However, it might be suggested that the election results will be important in terms of three major points:
 
1) Whether PM Maliki will stay in his position;
 
2) Who will be elected as the president?
 
3) Whether the new government will include all sections.
 
Maliki's fate 
The most important issue on the agenda since the beginning of the disputes on the elections is who will be elected as the new prime minister. It seems there is a quite difficult period ahead for Nouri al-Maliki, who was elected prime minister in the 2010 elections with the unwilling support of the Sadr Movement and Hakim's group as a result of long negotiations.
 
The main reason is the lack of a strong alliance. Representatives from Ahrar and ISCI have explicitly stated that they are against the re-election of Maliki as prime minister for a year now. It seems these two blocs could form a coalition against Maliki after the elections as they formed one after the 2013 provincial elections. The allegations that Maliki has become extremely powerful, has authoritarian tendencies and has been creating a grassroots support since 2006 are not recent ones. However, it is asserted in the Iraqi media almost every week for a year now that the four major parties (Ahrar, ISCI, Mutahhidun and KDP) will try to prevent Maliki from being re-elected as prime minister through various post-election alliances they have formed.  Furthermore, there are even allegations about who will be elected as the new prime minister. The opposition bloc against Maliki seems to be more powerful in terms of the number of votes and deputies compared to the previous term.
 
However, it wouldn't be right to underestimate Maliki. With the potential pre-election moves and the skill to create a post-election coalition, Maliki, who knows how to use the balances in the country and also reads the regional balances well, is still the strongest candidate. But still, Maliki's chance of being re-elected as prime minister is less when compared to 2010.
 
New president: 
Despite the lack of an institutionalized structure as in Lebanon, the political balances of post-invasion Iraq have created a structure in which positions such as the presidency, prime ministry and speakership are shared in terms of ethnicity and sect. Except for the one-year presidency of Ghazi al-Yawer, these positions have been equally distributed such as Kurds as president, Shiite Arabs as prime minister and Sunni Arabs as speaker. One of the most important disputes of the upcoming elections is whether this “unofficial agreement” will end or not.
 
Kurds in Iraq do not want to give up the seat no matter what since they see the presidency as their right and guarantee. Their demand for presidency is a cornerstone for both the domestic balances in the KRG and also for the relations between Baghdad and Arbil.
 
However, this time Osama al-Nujayfi, the Iraqi parliament speaker, to be the leader of Sunni Arabs, seems very willing to be elected as president. Nujayfi being elected as president, which Ayad Allawi could not achieve as the leader of Al Iraqiya, is as important for the Sunni-Shiite balance in Iraq as for the leadership of Sunni Arabs. Besides, whether the presidency is held by Sunni Arabs or Kurds is vital in terms of the fragile balance between Sunni Arabs and Kurds. It seems likely that the presidential and prime ministerial posts will be discussed as a package between the parties, and the new government will be decided over this negotiation. This situation already shows how long and tough the governmental negotiations will be.
 
Inclusiveness of the new government 
Probably one of the most important problems of the new government to be formed within the framework of the negotiations mentioned above will be its inclusiveness. Even though the government, formed after the 2010 elections, is a government of unity that includes all political parties except for the Goran Party, it cannot satisfy anyone, especially Prime Minister Maliki.
 
The fate of the government of unity in the future, which is not considered to be functional by many Iraqi politicians, is indefinite. It seems difficult to form a government where, on the one hand, each group is equally represented in ethnic and sectarian terms in the country and on the other hand for the government to act fast and determinedly to pass laws needed by the country. Beyond this contradiction, considering that politics and weapons are still arm in arm in Iraq and the attacks that take place in the country are to a great extent political, it should be taken into consideration that it will not be easy to form a new government.
 
Because of the fact that a great number of minor political parties and coalitions will play a vital role in the next parliament, it might be suggested that it is not going to be easy at all to form a new government in Iraq and for this government to be successful.