The Operations of ISIS and the Referendum Move of KRG

The events that occurred after the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) captured Mosul on 6 June 2014 are the signs of the transformation in Iraq. Due to ISIS coming to the fore in Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) de facto expanding its borders, and the ongoing crisis within the Iraqi central government, it is apparent that Iraq is heading towards a different future. Even though Iraq had to deal with some governmental crisis and radical groups such as ISIS, it is possible to say that a new era has begun in terms of KRG.

The de facto Kurdish government that was established after a no-flight zone was founded in northern Iraq in 1991 acquired a federal structure after the US invaded Iraq in 2003, took the name of Kurdistan Regional Government, and was thus established in its current structure. The KRG constantly developed within this time period and came to differ substantially from the other regions of Iraq in terms of security and stability. In addition to the governmental structuring, the development of KRG’S infrastructure and service sectors came to differ from the other regions of Iraq as well. Besides KRG’s success in terms of foreign relations, the way in which Kurdish parties managed to benefit from every internal crisis in Iraq brought the KRG to its current advantageous position. Thanks especially to its ability to successfully manage crises, the KRG was able to also prevent the occurrence of internal problems as well. After the operations of ISIS in June, as soon as the security forces of Iraqi central government withdrew from the regions considered as KRG’s lands in terms of geography and administration, Peshmergas entered these regions and KRG took control of them. The areas defined as disputed regions which cause administrative, military, political and economic problems between KRG and the Iraqi central government -alongside Kirkuk, some towns, districts and villages in Mosul, Salah-ad-din and Diala- have now come under the control of KRG. In its current situation, KRG has now almost reached its intended territorial breadth within the borders of Iraq. In this respect, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that the June operations carried out by ISIS benefitted the Kurds people the most.

However, one should not reach the conclusion that there is an agreement between the Kurdish people and ISIS. What is pointed out here is that the Kurdish people have turned the operations of ISIS into an opportunity and have gained dominance over the intended regions. Except for a few clashes, there has been no problem between KRG forces and ISIS. While ISIS does not intervene in the regions in which KRG has established dominance, and KRG forces have not made any moves that might lead to clashes with ISIS. However, it is believed that this is due to the fact that the regions aspired by ISIS and KRG do not coincide; and that were it otherwise it would be highly probable that there would be a clash. It can be said that KRG would not make a move that would lead to a clash with ISIS when it has gained such an advantage. On the other hand, it is possible that ISIS would want to come to the fore in the regions dominated by Kurdish people. In fact, clashed have occurred between ISIS and the peshmerga due to the ISIS attack on the peshmerga controlled and mostly Suryani populated Karakush located in the eastern side of Mosul. The occurrence of clashes between ISIS and the Kurds are highly likely if ISIS expands its activity area to the regions controlled by the Kurds. Despite this, however, it can be seen that KRG is staying away from a conflict and does not rush into regions that may trigger a conflict. In this regard, the village of Bashir from Tazekhurmatu district in Kirkuk and Telafer in Mosul, where the Turkmens predominantly live are good examples of this. The peshmerga first wanted to establish control in Bashir and Telafer but then did not intervene because ISIS attacked these regions.

This is because the KRG is attempting to establish superiority more so in terms of political moves. In this respect, Massoud Barzani, the president of KRG in Iraq, and some Kurdish authorities are increasing their discourse on independence. Speaking at a meeting held on 3 July 2014 in the KRG Parliement, Massoud Barzani asked for the start of the preparations of the commission for the referendum that will lead towards independence process of the KRG, and mentioned that they will hold a referendum on independence in the upcoming months and that they will determine the referendum date within a month. It is known that Massoud Barzani sometimes gives speeches of such character. Even though there are periods in which the KRG enjoys an advantageous position, there is a skeptical approach towards the announcement of the independence of KRG in terms of the international community and the region, and the overall tendency is for the preservation of the territorial integrity and political unity of Iraq. In this meeting with Barzani during his visit in Iraq, John Kerry, the U.S Secretary of State, invited people to join the Iraqi central government and maintain the territorial integrity, and urged Kurdish parties to support the national reconciliation. After the elections, Kurdish MPs participated in the first meeting of Iraqi parliament on 1 July 2014. For this reason, Barzani’s speech can be evaluated as an advance move politically as well as getting a glimpse of the public opinion.

Another issue about the referendum is the situation of the disputed regions in which the peshmerga have established dominance after the operations of the ISIS. Barzani has said once again that they would not withdraw from the regions over which they gained control but mentioned that they wanted a referendum in these regions. However, these regions may cause ethnical, religious, social, geographical, political and economic problems if there is a one-sided intervention. If the period after 2003 is evaluated, it can be seen that regions in dispute were the main sources of the dynamics of conflict in Iraq. In addition to the risk of ethnical and sectarian conflicts  occurring due to one-sided interventions, a many-sided conflict dynamic might occur if Sunnis participate the political process, if the Iraqi central government manages to weak the ISIS threat, and if people living in these regions protest against one-sided operations of KRG. For this reason, it is possible to say that the breakup of Iraq and the KRG’s independence in the short term would not be very easy if no regional and international reconciliation is reached within Iraq.