The overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011 marked the beginning of a new era not only for Libya but also for North Africa and the Mediterranean basin. Libya, part of the wave of Arab uprisings, became one of the few countries to enter a post-Gaddafi phase shaped by external military interventions during the revolution. However, this transition did not evolve into a stable governance process that met the expectations of the people. Instead, it resulted in a prolonged civil war, fragmented authority structures, and a crisis that turned the country into a battleground for external actors. Since 2011, Libya has effectively been divided into two main power centers; state institutions have become dysfunctional, militias have emerged as the primary security actors, and deep polarizations has taken root among social groups.
Developments in the post-Gaddafi era have not only resulted in the failure to rebuild the political order but have also weakened the social fabric. While Libya once enjoyed one of the highest per capita incomes in the Arab world, the civil war has led to a sharp decline in energy production, the collapse of infrastructure, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. UN-led peace and transition efforts have occasionally produced ceasefires and political agreements, yet they have failed to establish a lasting peace. Today, Libya remains politically divided: the west is controlled by the Government of National Unity (GNU) based in Tripoli, while the east is led by the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk and General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA).
This study assesses the transformation and conflict process in Libya through three main axes: First, it examines the post-2011 transformations and the impact of the civil war. Second, it analyses the UN-led process, the position of minorities, and efforts for social cohesion. Finally, it discusses recent developments over the past few years and explores potential future scenarios. This analysis aims to evaluate both Libya’s internal dynamics and the influence of global and regional actors.
This analysis was published on the website of the Türkiye Araştırmaları Vakfı on September 30, 2025, under the title “Libya’da 2011 Sonrası Dönüşümler: Güncel Gelişmeler ve Geleceğe Yönelik Senaryolar“
