Contents:
▪️ The Legitimacy Crisis and the Politicization of Law After October 7: Expectations for Gaza – Musab Şahin
▪️ Israeli Domestic Politics Two Years After October 7 – Özgür Dikmen
▪️ Israeli Opposition to the Gaza Genocide and Netanyahu’s War Crimes – Selim Han Yeniacun
▪️ Postwar Scenarios in Gaza – Gökhan Batu
▪️ On October 7’s Second Anniversary: The Future of Palestine and a Divided West – Helin Sarı Ertem
▪️ Beyond the Israel–Palestine Conflict: Russia’s Global Calculations in Gaza – Muhammet Koçak
▪️ China’s Palestine Policy Under the Shadow of October 7 – Murat Öztuna
▪️ October 7 and Iran: From a Narrative Crisis to a Compelled Doctrinal Transformation – Çağatay Balcı
▪️ Lebanon’s Fragile Balance: How Politics and Security Were Affected After October 7 – Çağrı Koşak
▪️ The Repercussions of the October 7 Attacks for Syria – Recep T. Teke
▪️ A Country of Fragile Balances: Iraq on the Second Anniversary of October 7 – Feyzullah Tuna Aygün
▪️ General Assessment and Conclusion – Oytun Orhan
General Assessment and Conclusion
The outbreak of the Israel–Palestine conflict on October 7, 2023, marked not only the beginning of war between the two sides but also a turning point in which the broader geopolitical architecture of the Middle East underwent a profound transformation. Spanning nearly two years, the conflict has triggered a chain reaction that has disrupted regional balances and reverberated across a wide geography—from Gaza to Lebanon, from Syria to Iraq, and even extending to Iran and Qatar. During this period, not only states but also regional organizations, public opinion, and international institutions have been put to the test, revealing a deep crisis of legitimacy in the normative order.
For Israel, October 7 represents a threshold at which the security doctrine built over many years collapsed, and domestic politics reached a breaking point. The far-right policies of the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu have brought about deep societal polarization within the country and serious isolation on the international stage. The government’s discourse of “national security” has been instrumentalized to overshadow corruption cases and coalition crises in domestic politics, while the destructive war carried out in Gaza has become a tool to consolidate the government’s internal legitimacy. However, this strategy has imposed a heavy cost on Israel’s position within the international system, leading the country into the deepest period of diplomatic isolation in its history. Israel’s aggressive policies have suspended earlier normalization processes in the Arab world and sparked a strong wave of backlash in Western public opinion.
The regional repercussions of the Gaza-centered destruction have deeply affected social and political balances, particularly in Arab countries. In Lebanon, Israel’s cross-border operations and systematic attacks on Hezbollah have made it difficult to maintain internal stability. In Iraq, the increased activity of Iran-backed militias and counter-operations by the U.S. have further undermined the country’s already fragile security structure. One of the most dramatic developments in the post–October 7 period has occurred in Syria. With Iran and Hezbollah losing influence on the ground, the Assad regime has entered a process of collapse. This has led to a fundamental transformation not only in Syrian domestic politics but also in the broader regional balance of power. Following the collapse of the Ba’ath regime, Israel’s intensified airstrikes in Syria have made the country’s stability even more fragile. The new Damascus administration has turned toward a precarious search for balance amid interventions by regional actors, marking the beginning of a new phase in the Middle East that can be described as the “post-Ba’ath era.”
