A New Era in Trump-Netanyahu Relations: Support or Tension?

No shift is expected in Donald Trump’s steadfast support for Israel following his re-election as president in the November 5, 2024, U.S. presidential election. However, his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to be as seamlessly aligned as it was during his first term. After all, in the five years since Trump’s initial presidency, neither the Middle East, Israel, nor Netanyahu himself remains the same as when Trump left office.

Amid heightened tensions in U.S.-Israel relations, Netanyahu has encountered multiple challenges with the Biden administration since January 2023, from the Judicial Reform Bill to unauthorized settlements in the West Bank. During this period, he successfully resisted pressure from the Democrats and, at times, effectively used this resistance as a tool in domestic political strategy.

However, based on Trump’s leadership style during his first term, it can be argued that Netanyahu may find it challenging to sustain the same trajectory. Moreover, whether there still exists a strong Netanyahu capable of stalling Israeli politics when necessary, as he did in Trump’s initial term, will only become clear after the conflict subsides. The trust deficit between the two leaders also emerges as a critical issue here, given that while Trump was still contesting the 2020 election results, Netanyahu congratulated Biden in a video message—a gesture Trump later deemed an act of disloyalty.

Trump as a Strengthening Leader in the U.S., Netanyahu as a Relatively Weakened One in Israel
After a series of five elections since 2018 and a period of political instability—including a year in opposition—Netanyahu returned to power at the end of 2022 by facilitating the entry of the ultra-right Religious Zionist camp into the Knesset. However, he remains in a precarious position due to ongoing legal cases. Moreover, in this period, Trump faces a new Netanyahu who is still trying to recover from the major blow dealt to his "Mr. Security" image on October 7.

Netanyahu has grown increasingly sensitive to the demands of his coalition partners, on whom the continuity of his government depends, and has at times struggled to manage divisions within Likud itself. As a result, Netanyahu currently occupies a position as a leader who has managed to survive politically in Israel through various maneuvers. Facing numerous internal challenges, he is aware that as 2025 approaches, election pressures will mount, and that, despite delays, an inquiry into the October 7 security failures is inevitable. Additionally, the wave of opposition activism that began with protests in 2023 has maintained its momentum, now evolving into a dynamic movement focused on the rescue of hostages after October 7.

In foreign policy, Israel’s room for maneuver has significantly narrowed compared to the mid-2010s. At that time, Netanyahu had an effective dialogue with Putin and engaged in multilateral initiatives, such as expanding relations with China and projects like the Chinese-led expansion of Haifa Port. However, partly due to the unique structure of U.S.-Israel relations, this multilateral approach could not fully develop. Following October 7, Israeli foreign policy has become considerably more dependent on Washington, particularly in alignment with national security concerns. Moreover, since October 7, the legacy of the Abraham Accords from the Trump era and efforts to broaden the normalization front with Israel have suffered a significant setback.

On Trump’s side, the situation is markedly different; he secured significantly more support in this election than he did in 2017. There is substantial interest in how U.S. policies might shift on both global and regional levels, particularly in areas afflicted by crises. As this represents his second and final tenure, and considering the experiences from his previous period—including challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic—Trump appears to be commencing this phase with a stronger position. This enhanced standing is likely to influence his approach to regional policies, with a key focus on the debates surrounding the wars he has promised to end.

As a leader who previously collaborated with Netanyahu, Trump played a pivotal role in several key developments aimed at reducing Israel’s regional isolation: the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords. These actions undoubtedly bolstered Netanyahu’s position, enabling him to consolidate power. It can even be argued that these achievements contributed to Likud’s ability to retain a substantial number of parliamentary seats amid the political instability that persisted until 2023.

Netanyahu’s Complex Profile in Personal Relations
Netanyahu generally adopts one of two approaches with U.S. presidents, depending on the state of U.S.-Israeli relations. In this context, he uses both positive relations and disagreements with American leaders as a leverage in Israeli domestic politics. When the White House’s opposition to Israeli policies intensifies, Netanyahu positions himself as a leader who “stands up to the U.S. president for Israel’s interests”, a stance that resonates within Israeli society. Conversely, when the policies of both countries align, and Israel achieves favorable outcomes, he emphasizes his relationship with the U.S. president, attributing Israel’s successes to his own strategic abilities. This enables Netanyahu to boost his popularity regardless of whether his relationship with American presidents is positive or strained.

In 2019, as part of his election campaign, Netanyahu displayed posters of himself alongside Biden and Putin on buildings, emphasizing his cooperation with these leaders. Another example is his effort, following October 7, to portray himself as consistently standing firm for Israel’s security and interests, even as he clashed with Biden on ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.

Thus, Netanyahu has never been a particularly reliable leader, not only due to his unpredictable maneuvers in Israeli domestic politics but also from the perspective of U.S. presidents and bureaucracies he has worked with. Biden experienced this firsthand during the Gaza ceasefire negotiations. For example, in the June 2024 ceasefire talks, Netanyahu made several promises to the U.S. administration, prompting Biden to announce a ceasefire plan. However, Netanyahu’s statements opposing certain terms of this plan soon placed Biden in a difficult position. Moreover, Netanyahu made negative remarks following almost every meeting framework. Given Trump’s leadership style, it is likely that he would have less tolerance for Netanyahu’s intricate maneuvers. Netanyahu’s tactics, aimed at appeasing his domestic audience while stalling the U.S. administration and undermining the president’s image, may find less acceptance under Trump’s watch.

A Promise to End the War?
Regardless of the administration or president, a significant deviation in U.S.-Israel relations or a reduction in U.S. support for Israel is not expected. However, Trump is not a leader who would tolerate being subjected to the same treatment from Netanyahu that Biden experienced. In other words, while the extent to which Trump’s second term will prove favorable for Palestinians remains debatable, Netanyahu, on the other hand, is likely to face a challenging period.

Prior to the election, a key element of Trump’s foreign policy promises centered on ending wars. While not all campaign rhetoric may directly shape U.S. policy, Trump’s commitment to this stood out in tone and frequency, especially toward the campaign’s end. Given its prominence in international discourse and rising expectations, the Trump administration will likely pursue steps in this direction. The real issue, however, lies in the terms under which any conflict would end—potentially a challenging matter for Netanyahu. As the practical impact of Trump’s “end the war” stance unfolds, the Trump-Netanyahu relationship is expected to clarify.

Decoupling Support for Israel from Netanyahu
In any case, Trump is likely to adopt a challenging stance toward Netanyahu in this new term. While Israel is not expected to operate entirely under U.S. orientation, it can be anticipated that it will feel increased pressure. For Trump, decoupling U.S. support for Israel from Netanyahu may be a pragmatic approach, making it likely that his rhetoric toward Israel and Netanyahu will diverge. In this context, Netanyahu’s recent reshuffling—replacing Gallant with Israel Katz as defense minister—can be seen as a strategic calibration. However, over the next two months before Trump assumes office, the situations on both fronts of Israel’s ongoing conflict will naturally influence the course of these relations. Thus, while a positive trajectory similar to Trump’s first term is not anticipated, the progress of the conflict will likely be a key factor in determining the depth of any shift in the Trump-Netanyahu dynamic.

This opinion piece was published on November 26, 2024, on the TRT World  website under the title “A new era in Trump-Netanyahu relations: between loyalty and tension?”