Houthi Offensive: Iran’s Last Resort or the Regionalization of the "Local"

The year 2024 marks a critical juncture for Iran’s "Axis of Resistance," a network of state and non-state actors pivotal to Tehran’s regional strategy. Once instrumental in extending Iran’s strategic depth and projecting its defense capabilities beyond its borders, this alliance has been severely disrupted by recent geopolitical shifts. The decline of key actors surrounding Israel—most notably Hezbollah—has unraveled Iran’s encirclement strategy, shifting the balance of power in Israel’s favor. This realignment not only undermines Hezbollah’s operational capacity but also deals a significant blow to Iran’s broader regional agenda, limiting its ability to project power and sustain influence. With its strategic depth from the Gulf to the Mediterranean diminished, the epicenter of Iran’s proxy warfare has shifted to new theaters, particularly Yemen, as it seeks to recalibrate its approach. Despite these challenges, maintaining pressure on Israel and upholding deterrence continue to be the central elements of Iran’s national security strategy.

Losing Syria and facing setbacks, Iran turns to the Houthis
Although Hezbollah remains operational, it is evident the group needs time to rebuild its strength. In Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and smaller Palestinian factions face mounting pressure as their resistance capabilities erode under Israel’s sustained military campaigns. At the same time, the swift collapse of the Syrian regime, following opposition advances over just 11 days, represents one of Iran’s most daunting challenges. The severance of logistical routes through Syria, once critical for facilitating Hezbollah’s resupply, has further hindered the group’s recovery. Faced with these setbacks, Iran has redirected the focal point of its proxy warfare strategy to Yemen, where the Houthis have emerged as a key actor. This realignment signals a profound adjustment in Tehran’s regional approach, as it seeks to sustain influence and relevance amidst the shifting geopolitical landscape.

Following the collapse of the Syrian regime, Yemen and Iraq remain two critical countries where Iran continues to sustain its influence. However, Yemen has assumed a more role in maintaining pressure on Israel. This is mainly due to the complexities of Iraq's political, social, and demographic landscape, as well as the potential for Israeli retaliatory strikes, which could place Iran in a difficult position within the delicate balance in this country. Consequently, Yemen represents a theater where Iran has greater operational flexibility. It’s also important to underline that the relationship between the Houthis and Iran reflects the nuanced spectrum of Iran's partnerships, which range from direct proxies to more autonomous partners. While some groups working with Iran operate as clear-cut proxies, fully reliant on Tehran's directives, others function as partners with greater autonomy. It can be claimed that the Houthis fall somewhere in between. While not every Houthi action can be classified as directly coordinated with Iran, their alignment appears to intensify during major attacks, particularly those targeting Israel or the Gulf, which could destabilize regional security dynamics. Thus, while the Houthis may not act as a traditional proxy, it is also inaccurate to classify them as entirely independent actors, as their actions often align with broader Iranian strategic objectives when viewed on a case-by-case basis.

By leveraging their precision-strike capabilities and strategic location along vital maritime chokepoints, Houthis have emerged as a formidable actor in the region. Since October 7, the Houthis have launched over 200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles, along with 170 drones targeting Israel, accumulating significant operational experience. Additionally, they have disrupted global maritime trade, with missile and drone attacks on nearly 100 commercial vessels in the Red Sea, compelling ships to adopt longer, costlier routes. These actions have implications that extend well beyond their immediate material effects, serving as both a demonstration of the Houthis’ growing capabilities and a broader signal of the enduring reach of the so-called Axis of Resistance.

Since October 2023, the Houthis have demonstrated growing proficiency in deploying drones that evade detection, presenting a persistent challenge to Israeli defenses. Starting in mid-December, the increasing frequency and impact of Houthi attacks underscore Tehran’s sustained capacity to project stand-off capabilities against Israel, highlighting significant questions regarding the robustness of Israel’s deterrence posture. As a reminder, on October 1, 2024, Iranian missile strikes penetrated Israel’s air defenses, hitting critical sites in Tel Aviv, Glilot, and Nevatim. This breach intensified concerns over the resilience of Israel’s defensive infrastructure. Adding to these vulnerabilities, the Houthis have conducted sustained drone and missile attacks, exposing the limitations of Israel’s mid-range air defense systems, particularly the Arrow 3. These evolving capabilities demand significant operational responses from Israel, with Yemen—over 2,000 kilometers away—becoming a critical theater. While Israel’s Air Force can execute sustained strikes, these operations are resource-intensive and may require coordinated efforts with other regional and global actors to disrupt the Houthis’ activities effectively.

Houthis’ aims and the regional implications of their offensive
Domestically, the Houthis have leveraged their confrontation with Israel to consolidate power in Yemen. Their recent implementation of weapons training programs for high school and university students, which have sparked controversy, reflects a strategy aimed at deepening ideological control and expanding militarization within the territories they control. However, this has sparked concern among Yemeni families, revealing the limits of their internal legitimacy.

Regionally, the Houthis’ military actions, carried out under the banner of support for Palestine, reflect a two-pronged strategy. On one hand, they aim to bolster their political and military influence in the Middle East, with the help of Iran and possibly as a forced direction by Tehran. On the other hand, these actions reinforce their authority within Yemen, presenting the Houthis as defenders of "the resistance. " This approach not only consolidates local loyalty to the Houthis but also positions them as a key player in the broader Axis of Resistance.

The sustainability of the Houthis’ offensive against Israel and the US/Western targets depends largely on their ability to secure logistical and military support, primarily from Iran through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The role of the IRGC in providing weapons, equipment, and training is central to the Houthis’ operational capacity. While allegations of substantial maritime support from Iran persist, definitive confirmation remains elusive.

The Houthi-Israel confrontation is not a localized conflict; it has profound implications for regional stability, international trade, and Yemen’s internal dynamics. For Israel, the financial and logistical burdens of countering Houthi aggression test its operational reach and resilience. For the Houthis, the conflict serves as a means to protect regional influence while tightening their grip on Yemen’s political and social structures. Ultimately, the longevity and intensity of this conflict will depend on the extent to which external actors, particularly Iran and its affiliates, can sustain the Houthis’ military and logistical capacities.

Since war became the main employer in Yemen, with numerous groups mobilizing the population by exploiting and instrumentalizing the conflict, the Houthis have transitioned from primarily targeting local and national adversaries to confronting what they perceive as their patrons: Israel and the US. This shift has been driven by the developments following October 7, as well as the evisceration of the Iranian defense strategy and its resistance network.