A Decade of Lost Chances: Past and Present Dynamics of Bashar al-Asad’s Syria

The forming of the new National Coalition of Revolutionary and Oppositional Forces in Doha in mid-November 2012 added a new domestic and international dimension to the conflict in Syria. The recognition of this platform as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people by more than 100 countries puts additional political pressure on the regime of Bashar al-Asad. The President has run out of political options after he had chosen to act exclusively militarily. This article looks back at the decade of lost chances under Asad in order to find an explanation to the “security reflex” that the regime opted for when the peaceful demonstrations started out. In this article, the Syrian intifada is placed into a political context of the Arab Spring in which it belongs despite the different path that Syria has been taking since then. The strong fragmentation of the Syrian opposition is part of the Syrian “specialty”. The main cleavages are elaborated here. Finally, five scenarios are offered that look possible at the moment of publication, not all of them are as negative as the current situation suggests.

Introduction

Let me start out with a personal anecdote of the last days inside the “Old Syria”. Damascus in November 2010 was a very interesting experience. There was a wide-spread feeling of frustration and stagnation, especially among the representatives of the opposition whom I have been meeting throughout the long and lost decade under President Bashar al-Asad. Widespread resignation and a feeling of defeat prevailed—sometimes even melancholy. Paralyzed by prison sentences, travel bans, and intimidations, Syria’s traditional opposition was preparing to hand over their political legacy to future generations in a distant future. None of them had anticipated that circumstances would change so unexpectedly. Some of the classic oppositional figures said that they had to admit that they had failed in their effort to change the country and that the regime was stronger than ever. The journalist Michel Kilo, for example, concluded prophetically: “Once the spark ignites the younger generation, we can withdraw. At least we have paved the way.”