Afghanization of Syria; Pakistanization of the ME, Central Asia and EU

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan harshly criticized Bashar al-Assad because of the massacre in Baniyas in Syria. Baniyas is a city in the Tartus governorate, northwestern Syria, located 55 kilometers south of Latakia and 35 kilometers north of Tartus.
 
Baniyas is an important turning point in the Syrian civil war because Assad is not drawing de facto borders for his regime. To this end, he has initiated the final stage of the design for the new Syria that will comprise the Tartus, Latakia, Hama and Homs provinces. The Assad administration does not hesitate to bomb the predominantly Arab-Sunni areas falling outside this new design because it does not consider them as part of its territories anymore. His goal is not to regain control over the regions and areas under the control of the Free Syrian Army. His goal is to do the greatest possible damage to the Free Syrian Army and to make sure that it becomes unable to make the final fatal blow.
 
Assad's Syria will encompass the east Mediterranean shores of Syria, the Arab Alawites and Christians. He will control the Lebanese border along the south and the Yayladağı border gate of Turkey along the north. In this way, the border with the Arab Alawites in Hatay will be preserved. The Sunni Arabs in this new Syria are intimidated and forced to leave their homes because of the massacres. It appears that Syria is becoming a new Iraq; on the other hand, a process of Afghanization is in progress as well in the country.
 
Syria is becoming a new Iraq because the country is being partitioned along religious, sectarian and ethnic lines. The central administration has been weakened, unable to control the entire country. Even if the war ends, there is a great chance that we will have a de facto partitioned Syria. Like Iraq, the central government is weak; a new Syria where ethnic, religious and sectarian clashes will claim 10-100 lives every day is being created. The balance is based on the idea that Assad should stay but should not win a victory and that the opposition stays but should not defeat Assad. The opposition is being denied strong weapons and arms so that the infrastructure of the country will eventually collapse and a substantial proportion of the Syrian people will become refugees in other countries. Only after such a total collapse can an international aerial bombardment, by which the Syrian air force and military infrastructure could be destroyed, get under way.
 
What distinguishes Syria from Iraq is the process of Afghanization in the Sunni Arab areas. Jihadist youths from all around the world, including the EU, the US, China, the Russian Federation, the Caucasus and Central Asia, have flown to Syria to join the war. There are many different approaches to the fighting. The fighters learn how to wage guerilla warfare, to use arms and make bombs. They establish ideological friendships. Six months of training are sufficient to start guerilla warfare and to create new cells. The war being fought in the Sunni-Arab areas of Syria is getting dirtier. The war is now being fought for different purposes. There are attempts to change the impression of the war to be that of a just and patriotic endeavor.
 
These attempts seeking to present it as a conflict that threatens the West are based on unjust reasons. This will lead to the Pakistanization of the West, the Middle East, the Russian Federation, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The process of Pakistanization will have its initial impact on the neighboring countries of Syria and then in the EU.
 
Turkey cannot remain a bystander to the Syrian conflict anymore. Helping the refugees is not enough. We have to learn lessons from Pakistan's experiences. In other words, effort must be made to ensure that the Free Syrian Army turns into a regular army.
 
The Syrian war has gained a new dimension. The Israeli and Jewish diaspora should act more responsibly. They should see that a weak Syria will serve their interests only in the short and medium term. In the long run, the prolongation of the war will pose additional threats for everyone.