America's Long Shadow

The modern period in international relations has been one in which great powers have held major influence in different parts of the world.
 
The Cold War, for example, concentrated global attention on the European region. Behind the Iron Curtain, as Churchill so eloquently stated, lay "all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe." Just as Germany was divided, so was Europe, and for that matter, so was the world. The global spheres of influence were seen in terms of black and white by both Moscow and Washington: What was theirs could not be the enemy's.
 
The end of the Cold War signaled a global power shift. The US emerged as the winner of the four-decade-long political war of attrition with the Soviet Union, and its status was elevated from superpower to hyperpower. When the immediate aftermath was over, it seemed that the "unipolar moment" that emerged would last considerably longer.
 
The Cold War period was one characterized by the question of which superpower would dominate the world economically. That discussion spilled over into the post-Cold War era, in which the US has maintained first place, as demonstrated by the table.

Top 10 global economies
 

 
China's post-Cold War growth and the economic strategy of extending its economic relationships near and far is expected to continue. Closer to its territorial vicinity are the energy-rich states of Central Asia. Given the energy-deficient character of the Chinese economy, such intense interest is no surprise. Since the 1990s, China has steadfastly increased its huge appetite for energy and is also prepared to pay for its delivery.
 
Eurasia
 
As China aspires to global power status, it must constantly renegotiate its relations with other major powers such as Russia, which is an important neighbor due to its crucial supply of natural resources at a time when the Chinese demand for energy is quickly gathering pace. In many respects, energy figures prominently in both countries' foreign policy aims and strategies. Moreover, it is Central Asia that has become a focal point for their bilateral relationship. The region's considerable energy reserves have encouraged both Russia and China to seek imports and maintain influence in the region. Over time this web of relations has evolved into an extremely sensitive issue for both parties.
 
China is interested in Central Asia for three main reasons. Firstly, it has become a critical source of energy resources for China. Secondly, China views the region as a security buffer zone between it and both Russia and the United States. Finally, China seeks Central Asian support in its ongoing fight against Uyghur separatism in Xinjiang. Furthermore, current trends forecast China as eventually replacing Russia as the dominant economic power in Central Asia -- at a minimum matching its role in the energy sector.
 
Judging from afar, it would appear that this eventuality will lead Chinese and Russian interests onto a collision course, thus we predict a conflict that can only damage the newly established “strategic partnership.” Such a view is primarily based on the Chinese foreign policy elite's unthinking acceptance of the image of a Russian Federation that is an unpredictable and undependable partner when opposing American unipolarity. Rivalry over Central Asian energy resources and maintaining influence in the region has added weight to this conclusion. Billions of dollars' worth of Chinese investments in Central Asian energy have led Moscow to view Beijing as a regional rival that must be countered.
 
International organizations
 
The pivotal mode of interaction between Russia, China and the Central Asian states occurs through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This forum is where China's desire to combat the three evils of terrorism, separatism and extremism are discussed. The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) of the SCO was established precisely for this purpose in 2004, dedicating itself as a coordinator of the member states' anti-terrorist activities, with a particular focus on radical Islamist organizations as well as the coordination of counternarcotics operations.
 
Moreover, the SCO is a potential forum in which energy activities can be regulated and compromises brokered, thus reducing tensions. Therefore, if the SCO functions well, it is unlikely that there will be a crisis challenging the “strategic partnership.”
 
Focusing on the Russian-Central Asian relationship, history plays a vital role, as it has had both positive and negative aspects. While Russia maintains its cultural influence through the widespread use of Russian as a lingua franca, it is evident that China has captured the economic markets of Central Asia. Militarily, Russia sees itself as the primary guarantor of Central Asian security. Moscow has sought to entrench its influence and keep China isolated through reminding members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of its importance, thereby maintaining its role of last-resort security provider to the Central Asian states without Chinese interference.
 
At the same time, Russia seeks to counter China's economic influence in Central Asia through the formation of a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, hoping to pull both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan into its orbit. Related to this development, the formation of a customs union and the Eurasian Union by 2015 will bring the economic integration of the current and possible future member countries to a qualitatively new level. These include but are not restricted to the elimination of existing limitations of mutual access to the national markets of member countries, the liberalization of exchange rates and financial policies and the implementation of coordinated macroeconomic, tax, monetary, trade, customs and tariff policies.
 
St. Petersburg summit
 
The recent G-20 Summit held in St. Petersburg demonstrated the considerable political and economic clout still wielded by Russia. It should not be forgotten that Russia's presidency of the G-20 meant that it headed an organization whose members constitute almost 90 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), 80 percent of international global trade and two-thirds of the world population.
 
The summit formally highlighted that the priorities of Russia's G-20 presidency in 2013 have all been centered around growth:
 
i. Growth through quality jobs and investment
 
ii. Growth through trust and transparency
 
iii. Growth through effective regulation
 
These three priorities are meant to serve as headline goals that must be assisted by a focus on eight vital areas:
 
1) A framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth
 
2) Jobs and employment, including tackling structural unemployment and employment of vulnerable groups
 
3) International financial architecture reform, including International Monetary Fund (IMF) quotas and governance reform as well as government borrowing and public debt sustainability
 
4) Strengthening financial regulation
 
5) Energy sustainability, including energy infrastructure and regulation, predictable energy markets and green growth
 
6) Development for all, including food security, infrastructure, human capital, financial inclusion and post-Millennium Development Goals
 
7) Enhancing multilateral trade
 
8) Fighting corruption
 
Russia's intentions are to maintain its "superpower" status in terms of energy and, at least in its eyes, to ensure that it is still considered not solely a regional hegemon but a potential world leader. In this context, the continuing rise of China is noted with concern in Moscow's echelons of power.
 
In the final analysis, using the economy as one example, the US remains in pole position. Of the aspirants, China is the ascendant, and Russia the declining power. In the security dimension, however, especially in Central Asia, the reverse is very much the case. Whilst there are genuine qualms concerning the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, China is unlikely to venture into a role as Central Asia's security guarantor. That weighty role will remain Russia's, and China will continue to focus on deepening its economic dominance in Central Asia.
 
Come what may, it seems unlikely that an era of multiple great powers à la pre-Cold War is on the cards anytime soon. As has been witnessed over the past few weeks in the Middle Eastern crises, the world -- whether it agrees or not -- still listens to Washington, not Moscow or Beijing.