Political Analysis of Gezi Park Protests: What Will Be Their Impact on Election Outcomes?

The Gezi Park protests are no longer associated with environmental concerns. Rather, they now target the ruling party. Indeed, protesters have attacked four local branches of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Protests that are driven by environmental concerns have a proclivity to be politicized. This tendency was particularly salient in the environmental movements concerning the Aral Sea in the Soviet Union, Lake Urmia in Iran and Hasankeyf in Turkey.
 
The Gezi Park protests have different components than previous protests in Turkey. There is a new opposition group in Turkey that consists of young people. These people are apt at using virtual and mobile technology, can easily get organized in the streets, are not affiliated with any political party and are quite effective.
 
The bulk of the protesters is not formed by supporters of the Republican People's Party (CHP) or Workers' Party (İP), radical leftist groups or vandals. This group is an amalgamation of middle and upper middle class, well-educated young (aged between 10 and 30) people who know a lot about the world, are versed in foreign languages, are students or work in the private sector and live in good neighborhoods in cities. This young group gets organized via social media (Twitter and Facebook).
 
They quickly learn how to show solidarity with one another. They want to live in a more democratic, more civilized and more prosperous country. They believe that the AK Party is now pursuing oppressive policies. They are not happy with the existing opposition parties. These people, who would follow the mainstream media in the past, no longer read papers or watch news bulletins on TVs. Instead, they follow news stories on the Internet or social media. Those who lend support to the street protests by turning on and off their lights at home or by banging pots and pans are the more elderly of the protesters. Passive protests are being held in urban neighborhoods, where middle and upper-middle class, well-educated people lived in the pre-AK Party era.
 
In Turkey, protests, including those regarding Gezi Park, tend to concentrate in neo-nationalist, leftist and Alevi communities. For instance, in Ankara, the district of Çankaya, dominated by neo-nationalist, leftist and Alevi people, as well as universities are the main venues of protests. In the city center of Hatay, protests remain restricted to the Alevi neighborhoods of Armutlu, Sümerli and Harbiye. There has been no protest in the Sunni districts of Hatay.
 
They quickly learn how to show solidarity with one another. They want to live in a more democratic, more civilized and more prosperous country. They believe that the AK Party is now pursuing oppressive policies. They are not happy with the existing opposition parties. These people, who would follow the mainstream media in the past, no longer read papers or watch news bulletins on TVs. Instead, they follow news stories on the Internet or social media. Those who lend support to the street protests by turning on and off their lights at home or by banging pots and pans are the more elderly of the protesters. Passive protests are being held in urban neighborhoods, where middle and upper-middle class, well-educated people lived in the pre-AK Party era.
 
In Turkey, protests, including those regarding Gezi Park, tend to concentrate in neo-nationalist, leftist and Alevi communities. For instance, in Ankara, the district of Çankaya, dominated by neo-nationalist, leftist and Alevi people, as well as universities are the main venues of protests. In the city center of Hatay, protests remain restricted to the Alevi neighborhoods of Armutlu, Sümerli and Harbiye. There has been no protest in the Sunni districts of Hatay.
 
As was the case with the Republican Rallies of the past, the silent voters who would opt for peace as well as economic, social and political stability may lend increased support to the MHP and AK Party. This large segment of voters could be defined as “silent actors.” The Republican Rallies were held in April and May of 2007 to protest Abdullah Gül's candidacy for president in the July 22, 2007 presidential elections. The military lent its support to these rallies. However, these rallies proved ineffective in changing the election results. AK Party supporters did not organize either the Republican Rallies or the Gezi Park protests. The AK Party's electoral support may be affected by the Gezi Park process only if the party acts without due regard and thereby provokes further incidents.
 
The only party that will be affected is the CHP. If it fails to adapt to the new trend, it may suffer a serious loss of votes. The CHP has three main groups of supporters: neo-nationalists, leftists and Alevis. The Taksim Platform may choose to establish a new party if the CHP fails to integrate it as the fourth faction. This may hurt the CHP considerably ahead of the three major elections that will shape Turkey over the next five years, as was the case with the Turkish Labor Party (TİP) movement of 1961. As former President Süleyman Demirel put it, “Protests won't corrode the roads.” You cannot weaken the AK Party with rallies. In Turkey, only economic crises can weaken and do away with ruling parties.