Turkey-GCC Little Noticed ‘Strategic’ Partnership in Mideast

Five years ago (in 2008), a relatively little-noticed strategic cooperation began in the Middle East that could perhaps one day become a very significant partnership.
 
Turkey became the first country to have a mechanism of strategic dialogue with the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC or Gulf Cooperation Council). Regular meetings at the ministerial level have been held since then.
 
Although international media paid little attention to this development, it was a significant mechanism of greater institutionalized collaboration between the prosperous Sunni Arab monarchies in the Gulf and NATO member Turkey. This cooperation would also mark the beginning of a new forum where politics and regional security, as well as strategic issues pertaining to energy security and transport, would be discussed.
 
Politically, this paves the way for not only increasing cooperation between Turkey and the GCC, but also through the İstanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) -- to which four out of six GCC states are partners -- between NATO and GCC states. Turkey has been playing a pivotal role in the development of partnership between NATO and GCC states in recent years.
 
Significance of partnership
 
The partnership is economically significant and complementary as well. The GCC countries are perhaps the most prosperous in the Middle East, and Turkey is one of the strongest industrial economies in the region. Therefore, although international media initially paid little attention, this is a strategic partnership of historic significance.
 
In 2008, Turkey became a non-member strategic dialogue partner of the GCC. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait are the six member countries of the GCC. Though not having a shore on the Gulf, nor being resource rich, Morocco and Jordan are also engaged in membership talks with the GCC (suggesting the relative success the GCC has compared to many other regional organizations). Both Turkey and the GCC have experienced relative peace and stability compared to the rest of the region.
 
In terms of Turkish foreign policy, Turkey’s present special relationship with the GCC represents the growing importance attached to relations with countries in the Middle East since the era of late Prime Minister Turgut Özal. This special relationship should be seen in the context of Turkey’s continuing intensification of its ties with other organizations in the Middle East and in Asia through groups like the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), of which Turkey is a member, and the Arab League, of which Turkey is an observer state. Furthermore, Turkey is also playing a pivotal role in NATO’s cooperation in the Middle East through the ICI (of which four out of the six GCC countries are participating).
 
Various dimensions of
 
Turkey-GCC partnership
 
Turkey-GCC cooperation has multiple dimensions: political/geopolitical, economic and cultural. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu summarized these three dimensions of the Turkey-GCC strategic dialogue mechanism following a Turkey-GCC foreign ministers meeting in İstanbul in July 2009.
 
Issues for the overall politics and security of the Middle East region also remain at the forefront for this cooperation council. One such challenge, at least perceived so in the eyes of the international community, is the concern regarding the nuclear program of Iran. Another challenge is the Arab Spring. Energy concerns over issues of transport security through strategic choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz will also be important items on the agenda of this cooperation.
 
Economically, the economies of Turkey and the GCC states have rapidly grown in recent years. Demographically, as well, the populations have grown in Turkey and in the GCC. (In certain cities such as Dubai, the population literally doubled within a decade.) Though Turkey is relatively resource-poor in terms of fossil fuel reserves, it is an industrially developed economy where construction (residential and office buildings as well as infrastructure projects), manufacturing (textile and automotive, among others) and industries and services (such as tourism and financial services) are the main drivers of the economy. The GCC states have also experienced growth in construction and in tourism industries. The airlines of both regions have been also some of the fastest growing airlines globally (i.e., Etihad, Emirates and Turkish Airlines). In sum, their overall economic structures make up for each other’s lacking resources.
 
Since the initiation of the strategic dialogue between Turkey and the GCC, the trade flow steadily increased as Turkey received some $30 billion worth of investments since 2001 from the Gulf region. In 2011 alone, the annual trade volume between Turkey and the Gulf region increased by over 36 percent. This is very significant at a time of economic recession in Europe. The partnership thus became economically more significant than perhaps originally envisaged, since these are dynamic economies that experienced growth over the last decade (2003-2013) at a period of global economic recession (2009 onwards). It is all the more impressive that such growth was achieved even though talks of a Free Trade Agreement between Turkey and the GCC have been virtually stalled since 2010.
 
The regions surrounding Turkey and the GCC were increasingly unstable since the initiation of the strategic dialogue mechanisms. Europe experienced economic recession and crisis in the euro, while social upheaval (Arab Spring) shook the Middle East (including protests in GCC states such as Bahrain). By contrast, trade and overall economic activity between Turkey and the Gulf significantly increased since the initiation of these strategic dialogue mechanisms despite these circumstances. Therefore, one can truly talk of the critical timing and win-win result of this increase in cooperation. Thus, regional politics are very important as these two areas in the north and south of the Middle East are zones of relative prosperity and stability in the continuously troubled Middle East region.
 
Cooperation between
 
Turkey, GCC to deepen
 
In conclusion, these political and economic issues make it very probable that cooperation will increase and deepen between Turkey and the GCC. While the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) (of which, incidentally, Turkey is also a strategic dialogue partner) received much media attention as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned the SCO as a possible “alternative” to the European Union.
 
Institutionally, the GCC is perhaps slightly more comparable to the EU -- the GCC has an ongoing round of enlargement, an existing common market, visa-free travel among member states’ citizens, ongoing talks to form a common currency, an existing defense agreement and an existing joint military brigade (the Peninsula Shield Force).
 
And although the GCC would probably not be a suitable “alternative” to the EU, it should definitely be viewed by Turkey (and by EU states) as complementary to membership in Western institutions such as NATO, (or perhaps the EU if Turkey eventually becomes a member one day).
 
Cooperation mechanisms, and particularly economic cooperation mechanisms, between Turkey and the GCC should deepen further.