Turkish-Kyrgyz Kinship Should be Reflected in Close Bilateral Relations

Of all the regions in the world, Turks have a predilection for Central Asia. This stems from ancient historical roots.
 
Turks have a particularly strong emotional attachment toward the Kyrgyz due to sharing a common ancestry and powerful historic ties that stretch back more than a thousand years, fighting side by side against the Byzantine Empire in western Anatolia.
 
It is also based on the end of the Cold War. Throughout the Turkish War of Independence, the Ankara-Moscow axis was very important. Facing the armed forces of various European countries on multiple fronts, it was essential to secure and maintain good relations with revolutionary Russia. Once the Turkish Republic was established, that mutually beneficial relationship continued until the end of World War II.
 
After the independence war, during the 1920s and 1930s, the Turkic people were not forgotten, though relations were few and far between. Atatürk possessed a supernatural foresight to look far into the future and predict what would happen. On the evening of the 10th anniversary of the republic he remarked, as if he were a fortuneteller looking into his crystal ball: “These days Soviet Russia is our friend, neighbor and ally. We need this friendship. But no one can predict what will happen tomorrow. It can break up just as the Ottoman Empire did. Those nations held firmly in its hands can break free from that embrace. The world will create a new balance. It is at that time, Turkey needs to know what to do. Within the remit of our ally there live our brothers whose language, faith and essence are the one and the same. We must be ready to protect them. Being ready does not mean being quiet and waiting for that day to come. We must make preparations. How do nations prepare for this? By keeping spiritual bridges strong. Language is a bridge ... Faith is a bridge ... History is a bridge ... We need to descend to our roots and unify within history where events have divided us. We cannot expect them to approach us. We must approach them.”
 
That approach was made immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with all the Turkic states. Turkey’s relations with Kyrgyzstan can be divided into the economic and political spheres. In terms of the economy, Turkish exports to Kyrgyzstan in 2009 were $140 million, which fell to $129 million in 2010, rising to $180 million in 2011, finally reaching $192 million last year. As for imports, they were a mere $31 million in 2009, further reduced to $30 million in 2010, rising to $52 million in 2011, before falling to $50 million last year. Therefore, the trade volume between the two countries stands at approximately $230 million, which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hopes to see at $1 billion. Placing Kyrgyzstan in terms of foreign trade, it ranked as the 85th largest export market in 2012 for Turkey, behind countries such as Sudan, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, and currently stands -- as of April -- in an improved 70th place.
 
Given the strong societal bonds between Turkey and Kyrgyzstan, the economic dimension of the relationship falls far below what it ought to be. However, this is understandable due to three specific factors. The first is the size of the Kyrgyz economy. The Kyrgyz market is small due to there being only 5 million Kyrgyz, whose purchasing power is quite limited. Therefore, the range of total imports that the Kyrgyz economy can consume is not wide-ranging. Secondly, there is the problem of distance. Being located at the eastern part of Central Asia, transportation becomes an obstacle. When challenging border crossings and customs forms and documentations are added, enhancing mutual trade becomes an arduous task. Thirdly, there is the location of China. As Kyrgyzstan shares a border with China and can easily import goods from its neighbor through low tariff rates, it becomes doubly hard for Turkey to export more. When one bears these factors in mind, then it becomes understandable why the trading relationship is not as high as is desired.
 
Opportunities for enhancing Turkish-Kyrgyz ties
 
Given Kyrgyzstan’s current strategic importance, on Monday the future of Kyrgyzstan was investigated at a workshop jointly organized by the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) in Ankara. The workshop provided insightful observations concerning both the recent past and the projected path of mutual relations. The Kyrgyz ambassador in Ankara, Ermek Ibraimov, stressed the importance of working together. In this regard Turkey is a priority partner, and the past three years should be seen as a model relationship. After more than two decades of fruitful cooperation -- where Bishkek observed Turkish domestic politics and foreign policy and found they offered important pointers -- it was time to peek into the future and identify what the priorities would be.
 
In fact, during the past 20 years, Bishkek had taken on board some features of the Turkish model. This task of identifying future issues and themes fell firstly on the academic community. Whatever the scholars would regard and categorize as being important for the future, the ambassador assured governmental support to focus on those themes. For two countries that shared centuries of history, it was only natural to jointly look toward the future.
 
Dr. Yıldız Uzakova, the impressive and highly effective counselor of the Kyrgyz Embassy in Ankara, highlighted in her presentation at the ORSAM event that it was Turkey who had first recognized the Kyrgyz Republic. Since that time, the relationship had become institutionalized and deepened, which would continue far into the future based upon strong fraternal bonds. The mutual relationship could not be reduced only to its political dimension, either, as it consisted of and contained multiple facets that translated into greater breadth and depth. Uzakova reminded the academic audience that more than 160 international agreements that catered to military cooperation, cultural matters and educational needs had been signed between Ankara and Bishkek, paying special attention to the Treaty on Permanent Friendship and Cooperation of Oct. 24, 1997 and the Declaration of Sept. 1, 1999.
 
Uzakova also mentioned the contributory role that civil society organizations could also play in further strengthening and supporting the mutual relationship. Kyrgyz traditions and values could be introduced to Turkish society through cultural events and culture days with the active participation of civic society. Certainly, the significance and importance of such social events can best be understood from the perspective of the excellent high-level relations that exist between the two countries. Societal relations and the Turks’ knowledge of Kyrgyzstan also need to be elevated to similar heights.
 
Possible Kyrgyz entry to Eurasian customs union
 
The presumed Kyrgyz entry into a customs union with Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan poses challenges for both Kyrgyzstan and the relationship with Turkey. As mentioned earlier, Kyrgyzstan enjoys a very open and profitable trading relationship with China. China is happy to export to Kyrgyzstan, benefiting from the very low tariff rates. These imported products, which are dominated by textile goods, are then re-exported to various other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), thus accruing profits for the Kyrgyz economy. In this respect, it is the fourth largest exporter of textiles to Russia. Entry into the customs union will entail the adoption of the common external tariff (CET).
 
As things stand now, on average, Kyrgyz tariffs are less than half of the customs union’s CET. The implications of this will be Kyrgyzstan suffering from losing the comparative advantage of being able to import Chinese goods on the cheap. Needless to say, this will have a major impact on the two main bazaars where re-exporting takes place: Dordoi Bazaar in the north and Kara-Suu Bazaar in the south. Such impacts do need to be taken into account due to the fact that these two bazaars jointly constitute one-third of the Kyrgyz gross domestic product (GDP).
 
On a social level, the customs union can have severe consequences. One of them is expected to be in the field of medicine. Currently, Kyrgyzstan does not charge a tariff on imported medicine, though acceding to the customs union will mean that the price of medicine will increase. This will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on the segments of society that need the greatest assistance: pensioners and those living below the poverty line. Some of the sick and needy could be priced out of buying the remedy for their illnesses.
 
Last month, President Atambayev reiterated his desire to join, describing it as not only realistic but also necessary for the country, while predicting that Kyrgyzstan would become the sewing machine for the whole union. Despite his earnest confidence in the Kyrgyz economy, the president nevertheless has made meaningful reminders of the fact that Belarus and Kazakhstan had received several incentives to deepen their common economic venture -- a similar approach should also be shown toward Kyrgyzstan.
 
Other policy-makers have also publicized their belief in the emerging Eurasian Union. One of these is Russian Minister for the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) Integration and Macro-economy Tatiana Valovaya, who sounded very confident a year ago: “We should not be afraid of a new wave of the global crisis. The world economy will come out of the crisis renewed. The Eurasian integration association should make an important part of it. The Eurasian Union will be a serious player in the global economic market.” Two months ago, she reaffirmed this belief by asserting that the enlargement of the customs union would lead to greater trade and direct foreign investment for all concerned.
 
In the same vein, head of the Eurasian Economic Commission Viktor Khristenko admitted that Kyrgyzstan had already applied to join and the working group already had concluded its important meetings and begun the roadmap for accession. He predicted that Presidents Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan) and Vladimir Putin (Russia) would have the opportunity to give their final assent to Kyrgyzstan joining the customs union before the end of 2013. It must be remembered that the customs union is not an end in itself, but simply a means toward a greater end: The ultimate aim of the Eurasian Economic Community is to move full steam ahead to create a fully fledged Eurasian Union on Jan. 1, 2015.
 
Therefore, this latest integration effort taking place within the territory of the ex-USSR is worth noting. It is important for Turkey as well, as exports to Kyrgyzstan will be subject to to the CET. Domestic production, funded by Turkish investors in Kyrgyzstan, is the natural consequence of such a development. One needs to remember, however, that Turkey already enters the Kazakh and Russian markets through having only invested in one of these countries. In that respect, only new ventures or fields where Kyrgyzstan has a demonstrable advantage will attract new Turkish investments.
 
Historical friendship natural asset for Turkish-Kyrgyz relations
 
To conclude, Turkish-Kyrgyz relations are multi-dimensional and enjoy a warm of relationship based on a grounded trust and confidence that is envied by the rest of Bishkek’s interlocutors. Turkey is a growing power, and its ancient homeland is naturally a specific region where much of its attention is focused. Due to its increasing presence globally, all regions need to be addressed by Turkish foreign policy. For the Central Asian region, Ankara has stood by its self-declared hope and belief in democratic regimes and a free-market economic philosophy. This particular relationship was summed up succinctly at the ORSAM workshop by a Turkish diplomat responsible for Central Asia when he stated that Turkey was happy and proud that Kyrgyzstan had made the choice to become a parliamentary democracy.
 
Foreign policy-makers can cater to all aspects of government-to-government relations. There is one area over which they are hopelessly inept. That is the collective feelings of one nation against another. Fortunately, neither Kyrgyz nor Turkish diplomats need dwell on this matter as both nations regard themselves as two grandchildren -- whose mothers are sisters -- who have found each other after having wandered around lost in the forest -- only hearing each other’s voices, but never being able to see and embrace.
 
That embrace, which Atatürk encouraged and predicted, is eternal.