What Do the Nuclear Negotiations Mean For the USA?

The key articles of the agreement have been built upon cutting off and freezingthe  progressof Iran in nuclear energy production. Accordingly, Iran accepted ten-year, fifteen-year and sine die restrictions respectively in certain fields and the tight control of these restrictions by the United States Weapons Inspectors. 

A mutual agreement was reached concerning the leading decisions between Iran and P5+1 states in April. The due date of the final agreement was determined as 30 June. The parties will come to the table in order to finalize the agreement on 15 May. Even though the agreement was made between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that one of the parties of the agreement was actually the USA and the other was Iran. The two parties which should have come to an agreement were finally Iran and the USA despite the highly active roles of the other great powers in the negotiation process. It is evident at this stage that these two parties have complied with an agreement within the framework of these principles.

Even though the matter hasn’t yet been cleared up or completed, it is possible to say that especially the USA is quite pleased with the agreement. As it is known, the USA is the second country which have reacted maybe the most toIran’s nuclear energy production after Israel and instigated the international order within this framework. It is a fact of common knowledge that the will and control of the USA lie behind the embargoes which have been placed on Iran for a long time. We even know that the USA lashed out over the cunning efforts to break the embargoes. Washington was taking the matter seriously in this sense. On the other hand, we also know that the Obama administration doesn’t adopt an attitude close to that of Israel. Obamaadministration even rejected constantly theinsistent demandsof Netanyahu about adopting harsher measures including military, and thus, the Obama-Netanyahu relationship passed through tense periods.

The Obama administration preferred to have the same approach to the Iranianissueas to all other international security matters. Within this framework, it kept the economic and diplomatic tools in use by the last moment instead of using minacious military language and/or action towards Iran. The long-lasting embargoes turned into economic crisis accompanied by the recurring devaluations in Iran. Having economic problems on one hand, Iran had to get involved in heavy military engagements in the Middle East geography on the other hand. Today, Iran is fighting a de facto war especially in Syria and Yemen and paying heavy prices. At this point, Iran seems to have actually accepted somehow that this situation cannot be maintained any more. It is certain that Iran will see this reconciliation as a success on its side and make propagandaby positing it as a victory. However, Iran’s preferences of excessive engagements in its foreign and security policies have literally driven Iran into a corner day by day and there haven’t been many alternatives left for Iran.

In this respect, it can be conceived that the coercive diplomacy which the USA has implemented againstIran has produced some results and succeeded in this sense. However, this shouldn’t be exaggerated because the USA has not reached a final resolution with this agreement. The possibility that Iran may produce nuclear weapons hasn’t been removed. In fact, the USA has only obtained the delay it sought for. The key articles of the agreement have been built upon cutting off and freezingthe progress of Iran in nuclear energy production. Accordingly, Iran accepted ten-year, fifteen-year and sine die restrictions respectively in certain fields and the tight control of these restrictions by the United States Weapons Inspectors. Iran will be able to have only one uranium enrichment plant and this plant will be able to enrich uranium which won’t be sufficient enough to produce nuclear weapons. Iran will never engage in plutonium enrichment. Most important of all, the enriched uranium amount of Iran will be lowered to the level that will require one year to produce nuclear weapon. It is now alleged that this level refers to a short period of time which is around 2-3 months. According to this allegation, Iran may produce nuclear weapon in two or three months no matter how exaggerated this prediction is. However, with this agreement, Iran turned out to have accepted extending the term to one year. It is conceived that the world public opinion can respond to the situation if Iran tries to produce weapon with confidential methods within a year. Nevertheless, it is necessary to keep in mind that this agreement doesn’t mean that Iran, which has already gained ground in the nuclear energy field and especially kept up pace with the technology, can be stopped forever. Iranians are already aware of this situation as well. Since the crisis fields that Iran should be concerned about are not nuclear, but conventional and economic, the entire agreement can even be the result of a change in the strategic priorities of Iran.

It would be better to consider this agreement as a tentative cease-fire regarding all these data. Iran had to take a breakand face other issues. For the Americans, this was the best option until a better plan was found. The USA was pleased to delay a situation which it couldn’t prevent.

We can consider this as a sincere pleasure. When the expert opinions are concerned, it can be said that American specialists did not envision such good results from the agreement and thus, they were surprised. They didn’t expect Iran to cooperate to such an extent regarding such tight controls. 

Another indicator of the devout willingness of the USA to make this agreement is a decision which has been taken by the Senate and set the Obama Administration free in the negotiations with Iran. The Senate took the decision on giving the full authority to Obama with 98-1 vote immediately before the negotiations which were declared to be conducted on 15 May. This demonstrates that both the republicans and the democrats in the Senate found the list of principles in April preferable to the previous situation. In addition, this decision was taken before the negotiations, which is a means of showing the other party that Obama has the full authority and making a goodwill gesture. It is seen that the USA is not willing to reserve the Congress trump card this time. In such situations, in order to coerce the other party, the USA usually reveals the risk of being rejected in the Congress and benefits from this ambiguity. However, this time, the USA must have been really willing to make this agreement since it is trying to eliminate the lack of informationin order to make cooperation possible and giving clear signs to the other party. The USA sees this agreement as an opportunity, but everybody knows delaying is not a solution.

This article was published in Ortadoğu Analiz journal with the title of "What Do the Nuclear Negotiations Mean For the USA? ”