Will the US Give Central Asia to Russia as a Gift?

The recent events in Boston clearly showed some of the changes in US foreign policy priorities, as well as in US perceptions of who the enemy is. For the US, within the broader framework of a perspective that puts the priority on the Far East-Pacific region, Russia is no longer the enemy. On the contrary, Russia is now a Western ally for the US when it comes to getting China under control. Americans nowadays see the Russians as the French of the North. In other words, though they may swear at America when drinking, like the French, the Russians also do not disobey America's word. Their hearts are socialist, but their pockets and pocketbooks are fiercely capitalist. For this reason, the US will not bother Russia in either Siberia or Central Asia. In fact, it will give permission for Russia to re-strengthen its military, economic and social presence in Central Asia post the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. The US will not even intervene when Moscow tries to re-group and re-strengthen its presence in the northern reaches of Afghanistan. As for Moscow, it will not intrude on or impede US activities in the Middle East, including in Syria.
 
The real reason behind all these preparations is the year 2014. The US is currently planning to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014. The US would like to use Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan for the overland transport of heavy military vehicles during withdrawal.
 
In the meantime, if US-Iran relations keep getting tenser, the heavy military vehicles in these countries might be brought into play. Tehran is well aware of this reality, which is why it is busy putting direct pressure on Bishkek and indirect pressure on Moscow for extended permission not to be given to the US for the Manas base near the Kyrgyz capital, and for the heavy military vehicles coming out of Afghanistan to be deployed through these countries.
 
Keeping the sensitivities of both Moscow and Tehran in mind, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev does not look warmly on allowing the US to extend its presence at the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan. Despite negative statements from President Atambayev, it seems very likely that the US will in fact continue its activities post-2014. It looks also likely that military aid from the US to Bishkek will play a role in the decision from the Kyrgyz capital. It also appears that if Atambayev rejects the extension on the use of the Manas base, there is a Plan B. A revolution similar to the one that occurred in April 2010 could happen again in Bishkek. The leader of this revolution might well be the president that preceded Atambayev, Roza Otunbayeva. Otunbayeva and Mikheil Saakashvili, president of Georgia, are the two leaders of former Soviet republics most trusted by the US. As for Otunbayeva, she is ambitious. She is increasing her presence and her powers in Kyrgyzstan step by step.
 
In recent years, Russia has begun to re-strengthen its presence in Central Asia. It is Uzbekistan that is the rebellious child. Turkmenistan, for now, appears to be in the bag. As for Kazakhstan, it is a piece of the international system. As for the two Central Asian countries that are poor when it comes to natural resources -- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -- they rely on assistance from the outside world.
 
At the same time though, the West is not achieving anything real in Central Asia. It is doing nothing to make daily life easier or to increase prosperity levels. Its only assistance is in destroying the old order, but it is not considering the construction of a new order. People are unemployed and worried about the future. There is no hope. In Central Asia, the Russians and the Turks do not just talk; they work. They open lines of credit, give cash assistance, forgive state debts and help set up new facilities. They build new modern education facilities. Russia is currently preparing to accept Kyrgyzstan into its Customs Union (Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). If Bishkek can get all of its laws in place in time, Kyrgyzstan should be a full member of this Customs Union by the end of 2013.