Changing Geopolitics of Western Sahara after the Arab Spring and Morocco

2011 Constitution that was promulgated on July 1, 2011 let Morocco get over Arab Spring calmer than other North African and Middle Eastern states. Even though the Constitution was successfully implemented and it offered many democratic rights to Moroccan citizens, expected concrete steps could not yet be taken on an important subject. This is about, deliberately, the future of Western Sahara region that has been held on state agenda since 1956 when Morocco gained its independence from France and Spain. Western Sahara in the south of Morocco has always been regarded as a part of Morocco. Relatedly, people in Western Sahara who defined themselves as Sahraouis (as citizens of the Sahraouian Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) were always seen as Moroccans by the Moroccan state. This land and identity dilemma between Western Sahara and Morocco composes the dynamics of the Western Sahara conflict nowadays.

The actors of Western Sahara conflict have varied and changed since it started. During the days when the United Nations decided to go for a referendum in the context of self-determination for the future of Sahraoui people in 1975, the major actors of the conflict were Morocco, Mauritania and Spain. When Sahraouis started to flee from Morocco to Tindouf city of Algeria as asylum seekers in 1979, Algeria emerged as an additional actor. The actors quite vary today. Besides many Latin American and Sub-Saharan African countries, particularly European Union and several non-governmental organizations in the European Union were added to the conflict as new actors.

Doubtlessly, Morocco has been the most dominant actor in the Western Sahara conflict since the beginning. As a state that declared its independence from France and Spain in 1956, Morocco boosted its sovereignty claims in the region with the Istiqlal Party that was the hegemonic branch of Morocco’s independence struggle together with its leader Allal al Fassi’s Great Morocco Plan. Contextually, the plan would create ideal Morocco covering lands from the city of Tindouf in the east close to Algeria and Senegal River in the south. Inevitably, the plan made Mauritania another actor because of its geographical location on the borders of the Great Morocco Plan in the north of Senegal River. Morocco did not recognize Mauritania’s independence in 1960 and decided to go for a war with Algeria (The Sand War) in 1963 to capture the city of Tindouf from Algeria to carry out the plan. Since 1975 when the conflict started to proliferate, Algeria and Mauritania became more challenging to Morocco. In order not to lose Western Sahara region and Sahraouis’ loyalty to the state, the government took some initiatives in the region such as the 282 million USD Sahara Development Program in January 1978. The program involved construction of a 630 million USD port in the city of Layoune, and 42 million USD two distinct ports in the cities of Boujdour and Dakhla, in Western Sahara. Moroccan state did its best to do the program. However, it failed to win the hearts of Sahraouis who still continued to insist on the UN’s referendum’ implementation. With the support of Algeria, the Polisario Front as the military organ of the SADR started an armed struggle against Morocco and killed lots of Moroccans in the south by 1979. As a result, the Moroccan state decided to construct a 2800 km. wall from north to south in order to prevent the passages of Polisario militias to Morocco and also to stop Sahrouis flee from Morocco to Algeria. Polisario Front intensified its attacks so much that the state had to buy artillery from France, Austria, United States and South Africa to fight Polisario Front between 1979 and 1981. Despite all, Morocco continued to possess Western Sahara so ambitiously that it even envisaged suspending its membership at the African Union if the organization would recognize Western Sahara’s sovereignty. Moreover, it closed its border with Algeria in 1994.

In the light of democratic steps that were taken in Morocco with the 2011 Constitution, many states who praised Moroccan state’s answer to popular demands were disappointed when they saw that same performance could not be shown in Western Sahara conflict. Morocco’s insistence on the non-recognition of the UN’s referendum decision added new actors to Western Sahara conflict. Many European Union members, African Union members, many NGOs (mostly from Spain), and many Latin American countries consequently became sides in the conflict since 2011. These new actors manifested that Morocco should have gone for a referendum in Western Sahara. On March 27th 2015, for instance, African Union declared in 496th summit of Peace and Security Council that only the UN’s decision on Western Sahara would be binary. In addition, it also declared that a special envoy would be sent to Western Sahara and Tindouf to observe the status of Sahraoui asylum seekers. Even though Moroccan King Mohammed 6th declared on 40th anniversary of the Green March on November 7, 2015 that the Moroccan state would operate considerable development projects in Western Sahara region, they were not enough to plummet given tensions in the world to Morocco. On November 13, 2015 President of SADR and the General Secretary of Polisairo Front Mr. Muhamed Abdelaziz stated that Morocco’s rejection of the UN's 1975 referendum decision in Western Sahara did not jeopardize Mediterranean Sea only but whole Africa. At the very same time, many delegates from Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa joined the European Sahraoui People Solidarity Meeting (EUCOCO) in Spain where they again highlighted Morocco’s obligation to pursue UN’s decisions. A week after that meeting, South African Minister of Culture Mr. Mathi Mthethtva visited SADR government in Tindouf to sign a cultural exchange agreement.

Support to SADR and referendum in Western Sahara was also advocated by Latin American countries in addition to Sub-Saharan African countries. Ambassador of SADR to Algeria Mr. Ibrahim Ghali met Ambassador of Ecuador to Algeria Mr. Jose Rafael Serrano Hermera to sign mutual agreements in diverse areas. Besides, Ecuador, Peru, Mexico and Cuba also declared that they would support SADR in the conflict. Another underlined point about the conflict was the argument that Morocco was an invader state in Western Sahara. In December 2015, Maltese Minister of Foreign Affairs said that Morocco’s land claims on Western Sahara were an obstacle to the completion of African decolonization. Morocco’s position in Western Sahara was also discussed in Swedish and Danish parliaments, and the African Union which declared in the same month that Morocco’s search for phosphate in Western Sahara was not legal. Reactions to Morocco also prevailed in North Africa. The People’s Sahraoui Army was invited to North Africa Regional Capacity meeting in Addis Ababa that was organized in the partnership of Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Tobruk government in Libya. A recent development about the Western Sahara conflict happened last week when the Moroccan state asked the MINURSO Representative Mr. Christopher Ross not to visit Western Sahara lands again. This demand was highly reacted by the world leaders, upon which European Union canceled a trade agreement with Morocco. All these developments eventually augmented the number of participants in the 14th Polisario Committee on December 16-20, 2015, roughly 2475 from all over the world, where Polisairo Front and SADR could find a nice atmosphere to show off.

The most important regional reason why Morocco possess Western Sahara and does not want to go for a referendum there, is actually its desire not to see Algeria as a thrived actor in North Africa. It is an undeniable fact that Algeria’s oil pipeline project between Algiers, Western Sahara shores and USA shores annoys Morocco. Furthermore, Morocco does not want to lose its prestigious status in phosphate and iron trade with USA and European Union by not allowing Algeria to enter in Western Sahara lands. On the other hand, a reason why Sub-Saharan African and Latin American countries oppose Morocco in Western Sahara conflict seems to lay deeper than merely its non-recognition of UN referendum decision, in colonial history. Throughout Western Sahara conflict, these states, especially the Sub-Saharan African ones, found a chance to repeat their condemnation of Morocco’s 1987 membership application to European Economic Community as an act that was perceived as a betrayal to Third Worldism and Africanism.

To sum up, Moroccan state that could successfully offer many democratic rights to its citizens in the aftermath of Arab Spring could not yet show the same performance on Western Sahara conflict. Moroccan state did not withdraw its military from the region since 2011, and even established police stations near primary schools. Moreover, many people who defend the independence of Western Sahara were and still are jailed. The wall that was constructed in 1982 continues today to stop Sahraoui asylum seekers from going to Tindouf. Moroccan state could be right on defending Western Sahara considering the merciless attacks of Polisario since 1979 and this could naturally lead Moroccan state to follow a very rigid policy for the Western Sahara conflict. However, the state must know that the more rigid policies it continues to follow in Western Sahara (the rejection of meeting with the Polisario and trying to settle this conflict through diplomacy), the more it will be alone both in Africa and in the world. Accordingly, Morocco carries the dangers to be isolated from international arena, as this was the case in the mid-16th century because of other political reasons, unless it tries to approach UN’s referendum decision. In this context, there are two options for Morocco. Either it would hold a referendum in Western Sahara in harmony with the UN and restore its image especially in Africa, or it must be ready to be alone in international politics. It clearly seems that Morocco’s possession of Western Sahara would not improve things but worsen them. UN General Secretary Mr. Ban Ki-moon’s visit to Western Sahara in January 2016 is a denominator to see which of these two options Morocco would choose for its roadmap.

This article was published in Ortadoğu Analiz journal with the title of "Changing Geopolitics of Western Sahara after the Arab Spring and Morocco”