Introduction
The attacks by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent large-scale, disproportionate Israeli attacks have shaken the already fragile balance in the Middle East and accelerated the reshaping of the region’s security structure. However, the uncertainties caused by these developments have raised significant questions regarding the Gulf security environment. The geopolitical shifts in the Levant have forced Gulf countries to adjust their foreign policies. This policy climate has been critical not only in the context of the Israeli-Hamas crisis but also for Gulf security and U.S.-Gulf relations, though indirectly. Gulf countries, which were in the midst of normalizing relations with Israel, also found themselves facing political uncertainties, including the redefinition of U.S.-Gulf relations. During this period, factors such as the U.S.’ strategy in the region, the Gulf countries’ relations with Israel, Iran’s influence and its normalization process with Gulf countries, and increasing geostrategic uncertainties, have come into focus. After months of conflict and regional tensions, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, established on January 19, 2025, has provided the states in the region with an opportunity to determine a new strategic direction. However, the fall of Bashar Assad regime in Syria and the shifting dynamics in the Levant have further strained U.S.-Gulf relations and Gulf security.
Another decisive factor in this new period has been Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the U.S. Trump’s Middle East policy is particularly important for Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Iran. Having adopted the “maximum pressure” policy against Iran during his first term, the return of the Trump administration after four years raises questions about how he will now balance Gulf security, especially since the security dynamics in the Gulf have not remained the same. The relationship between the U.S. and Gulf countries continues to be shaped by key issues such as Iran’s regional influence, the exchange of fire and missiles between the Houthis and Israel, and broader security concerns. Additionally, the normalization process between Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, along with the U.S. military presence in the region, remain critical factors in determining the future of the Gulf security dimensions.
