The war that erupted in 2020 in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has been one of the most devastating internal conflicts in the country’s recent history, exposing not only a regional issue but also the fragility of Ethiopia’s federal structure. While the 2022 Pretoria Agreement was a significant turning point, halting active hostilities between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government, the post-agreement process has been characterized by “negative peace” rather than long-term reconciliation. Deep mistrust and mutual accusations between the parties persist to this day.
By 2025, the political conflict in Tigray took a new turn when the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) removed the TPLF from the list of official political parties due to systematic noncompliance with electoral laws and regulations. Around the same time, a rival political entity called the Semeret Party, reportedly founded by figures including former TPLF official Getachew Reda, emerged. This development, fueled by growing dissatisfaction among the youth population with the TPLF leadership, signals a strengthening search for political regeneration and nonviolent alternatives in Tigray. However, it also raises new debates about legitimacy, representation, and whether the Ethiopian federal government is promoting pluralism or merely exploiting divisions. Thus, the paper analyzes the federal government’s strategy towards Tigray in the aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement, the TPLF’s responses to this process, and the new political dynamics that have the potential to either consolidate or further destabilize the country.
