The first unofficial results of Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) parliamentary elections, held on Sept. 21, have been announced.
The elections, held in quite an organized and systematic manner considering the current conditions in Iraq, featured the first use of electronic voting in Iraq. The ballots were first stamped electronically, and then stamped again by hand.
The electronic stamping was intended to prevent electoral fraud. Since the electronic stamping device also includes a timestamp, voting after 5 p.m., when polling stations were closed, was prevented. We saw that both representatives of political parties and also the officials of Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) acted responsibly. Still, it is hard to say that the old habits have been broken easily. Despite the fact that the armed forces did not intervene in voting centers, their presence at the voting centers caused unease among the people. Nevertheless, it was observed that the voter turnout was high and people went to the polls with their families. The fact that parents brought their children with them to voting centers is especially important to hand down the culture of democratic participation to future generations.
The winner of the elections, which had an average turnout of 73 percent, was the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), according to unofficial results. Before the elections, it was believed that the KDP would come in first. The main question was who would win in the rivalry between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Gorran movement, and what would be the turnout for the PUK with Jalal Talabani having health issues.
As expected, it seems likely that the KDP will win 38-40 seats in parliament after receiving 38 percent of the votes. However, there is an 11-seat quota for Turkmens, Christians and Armenians in the 111-seat parliament of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). While five seats are reserved for Turkmens and Christians each, one seat is reserved for Armenians.
It is possible to suggest that at least eight of those seats will act in unison with the KDP. This is the first time that the KDP and the PUK, which ran on joint lists in previous elections, have run on separate lists. While the KDP preserves its voting potential, it seems that the PUK has lost grassroots support. Hence, this election is important to understand the balance between the two parties more clearly.
In rivalry between Gorran and the PUK, the winner is Gorran. While the PUK received 17 percent of votes, Gorran received 23 percent of the votes. Accordingly, Gorran is expected to win 22-25 seats in the KRG parliament and the PUK 16-18 seats.
Islamic parties have made progress compared to previous elections. The Kurdistan Islamic Union and Kurdistan Islamic Group received 9 percent and 6 percent of the votes, respectively, meaning that both parties won 14-16 seats in total. Compared to previous elections, it seems the KDP has not lost its grassroots support. Although Gorran, which came in second in the elections, has been presented as the winner, it appears that it has preserved the votes it received in previous elections, while a substantial increase has not been observed in voting rates. The fact that Talabani could not actually assume the leadership of the PUK, a power struggle within the PUK for the post-Talabani era and the negative impact caused by the strategic coalition with the KDP might have caused PUK voters not to go to the polls. From this point of view, it can be said that this situation caused an increase in voting rates if not in the number of voters voting for other parties. This means that the KDP and the PUK will have the opportunity to form the government again with the support of deputies from the minority quota.
According to news from the KDP, it is highly likely that it will form a coalition government with the PUK and the Kurdistan Islamic Union. This means the strategic coalition between the KDP and the PUK will continue. Considering the coalition from the PUK's point of view, it seems inevitable in a sense. The PUK has to form a coalition in order not to lose power and to stay informed about the KDP's policies. Furthermore, it can also be asserted that it is necessary to maintain the coalition between the PUK and the KDP in order to also balance Gorran's dominance. Gorran's discourse indicates that it wants to be a coalition partner.
Considering that Gorran split from the PUK, it is necessary to take the possibility of it reaching an agreement with the PUK into consideration. However, it seems unlikely that the parties will reach an agreement since Gorran is in competition with the PUK to take its place. Considering the number of deputies, it is not likely that Gorran will be able to form a coalition government with the Islamic parties, leaving the KDP and the PUK out. Despite Gorran's propaganda against the KDP since 2009, when Gorran was established, it does not seem likely that it will form a coalition government with the KDP either. Seeking to be a coalition partner, Gorran being a part of a broad-based coalition government, in which all other parties led by the KDP take part, should be assessed as a serious possibility. As a matter of fact, this possibility is frequently mentioned in political lobbies in the KRG.
In conclusion, no matter which possibility is taken into consideration, what is certain is that a government will be formed under the leadership of the KDP.
