Attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disruptions to global trade transiting the Suez Canal, and intensifying competition among major powers in the Horn of Africa have brought this region, long associated with recurring crises, to the forefront of the international security agenda. Today, a security crisis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would affect not only the countries of the region but also Europe’s energy supply, global supply chains, and the economic security of NATO member states. Therefore, from NATO’s perspective, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa should be viewed not merely as distant zones of instability but as a strategic geopolitical basin directly linked to the security of the alliance’s southern flank. In this context, the region’s evolving security dynamics require NATO to move beyond traditional approaches based solely on military instruments. Türkiye’s multidimensional engagement model in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia, developed over the past two decades through a combination of security, diplomacy, and capacity-building, deserves close attention. The experience and institutional expertise Ankara has accumulated on the ground offer important lessons for NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood strategy, which increasingly emphasizes local partnerships and sustainable security.
Why Red Sea and Horn of Africa Are on NATO Agenda
Although NATO’s security agenda in the post-Cold War era largely focused on threats emanating from the Euro-Atlantic region, the alliance’s attention has increasingly shifted southward in recent years. While European security has regained prominence following the Russia-Ukraine war, transnational security challenges such as irregular migration, terrorism, maritime security, the protection of critical supply chains, and great power competition have elevated NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood approach to a more strategic level. In this context, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa are no longer peripheral regions defined primarily by recurring crises. Instead, they have emerged as a critical geostrategic basin that NATO closely monitors because of its importance to global trade, energy security, and geopolitical competition.
The region’s growing importance is primarily tied to global trade routes. Approximately 12% of global maritime trade passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal. As the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia, this corridor is one of the lifelines of the global economy, carrying both energy shipments and containerized cargo. However, attacks by the Houthis in Yemen on commercial vessels in recent years have exposed the vulnerability of maritime transportation. The need for many shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope has not only increased freight costs but also caused significant disruptions to global supply chains. This situation demonstrates that security in the Red Sea is no longer merely a regional issue but has become a global security concern that directly affects the economic and strategic interests of NATO members.
At the same time, the region’s significance extends beyond maritime security. In recent years, the Horn of Africa has become one of the emerging arenas of great power competition. China has expanded its influence through its military base in Djibouti, infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative, and growing economic presence. Meanwhile, Russia has sought to establish a lasting foothold through military and security partnerships with several countries, particularly Sudan. Investments by Gulf states in port infrastructure, Iran’s regional influence activities, and security initiatives undertaken by Western actors further underscore the Horn of Africa’s emergence as a central geopolitical arena in contemporary debates over multipolarity in the international system. For NATO, therefore, the challenge extends beyond developing military responses to specific threats; it also requires building sustainable partnerships capable of supporting long-term regional stability.
Indeed, a transformation in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood approach has become increasingly evident in recent years. The alliance has gradually moved away from traditional approaches that define security solely in terms of military power projection and has instead placed greater emphasis on capacity building, cooperation with local partners, and strengthening resilience. Experiences in Libya, Afghanistan, and the Sahel have demonstrated that externally imposed military solutions rarely produce lasting results when they are not accompanied by local ownership and institutional capacity. Consequently, strengthening local actors and fostering regional partnerships have become critical to addressing the security challenges NATO faces along its southern flank.
Türkiye’s Horn of Africa Experience and Strategic Implications for NATO
Türkiye’s experience in the Horn of Africa offers a noteworthy example in this regard. Over the past two decades, Ankara has implemented its multidimensional Africa policy across the continent, with Somalia serving as a central pillar. Türkiye’s engagement in Somalia extends beyond military cooperation to encompass diplomacy, development assistance, humanitarian support, education, and institutional capacity-building within a comprehensive framework. In this respect, Türkiye’s approach in the region closely aligns with the comprehensive security approach that NATO has increasingly emphasized in recent years.
The TÜRKSOM Military Training Base in Somalia is one of the most visible examples of this approach. Türkiye not only provides military training but also contributes to the professionalization of Somalia’s security institutions, the enhancement of command-and-control capabilities, and the reconstruction of the country’s national security architecture. Given Somalia’s longstanding institutional capacity challenges and the threat posed by al-Shabab, these efforts appear to generate strategic outcomes that extend beyond short-term operational gains. This experience also offers important lessons for NATO. Strengthening the security sector by building local capacity can produce more sustainable outcomes than models that rely primarily on external intervention.
Türkiye’s contributions to regional maritime security are equally noteworthy. Maritime and defense cooperation agreements with Somalia provide significant opportunities to protect Somalia’s exclusive economic zone, combat illegal fishing, and strengthen maritime security capacity. Given Somalia’s coastline along the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, these initiatives carry strategic significance not only for Somalia but also for the security of international maritime trade. For this reason, there is strong complementarity between NATO’s maritime security objectives and Türkiye’s practical experience on the ground.
Türkiye’s Added Value in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood Strategy
Another notable contribution Türkiye can make to NATO lies in its capacity to facilitate diplomacy. The Ankara Process, launched following tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia in 2024, demonstrated that Türkiye is capable of serving not only as a security partner in regional crises but also as a diplomatic facilitator. By bringing the parties to the negotiating table and maintaining open channels of dialogue, the initiative closely aligns with NATO’s growing emphasis on crisis prevention and conflict management. Today, security requires not only mitigating military threats but also establishing political mechanisms capable of preventing crises from emerging in the first place.
Furthermore, Türkiye’s effectiveness in the Horn of Africa does not stem solely from its relations with state institutions. The broad network of engagement established through the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA), the Turkish Maarif Foundation, the Turkish Red Crescent, civil society organizations, and private sector investments has given Ankara considerable societal legitimacy in the region. In an era in which the nexus between security and development is becoming increasingly important, this experience offers valuable insights for NATO.
In conclusion, the success of NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood strategy will depend less on the amount of military power the alliance can deploy to the region and more on its ability to establish sustainable partnerships. The emerging security environment in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa requires the simultaneous integration of military deterrence, diplomatic engagement, capacity building, and local ownership. Türkiye’s multidimensional approach developed in recent years, particularly in Somalia, serves as an important reference point for NATO in this regard. Ankara’s institutional experience on the ground, the trust it has built with local actors, and its experience shaped at the intersection of security, development, and diplomacy can be regarded as a strategic partnership model capable of making tangible contributions to the evolving security understanding of NATO’s southern flank. Therefore, in the coming period, Türkiye’s experience in the Horn of Africa will continue to serve not only as an achievement of its national foreign policy but also as an important testing ground for the applicability of NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood vision.
This article was published in the July issue of SAVTEK Magazine.
