Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Feb. 17 visit to Addis Ababa, at the official invitation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is strategically important in demonstrating both the historical continuity and the new strategic direction of Türkiye-Ethiopia relations. The fact that the visit, Erdoğan’s first in 11 years, coincided with the 100th anniversary of the opening of Türkiye’s oldest embassy in sub-Saharan Africa (1926) points to the institutional depth of relations between the two countries beyond its symbolic dimension.
Deepening economic and energy ties
The “9th Türkiye-Ethiopia Economic, Trade, and Technical Cooperation Joint Economic Commission Minutes” signed during the visit, along with a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the energy sector, indicate that the new phase of relations will be based on economic and technical deepening. Türkiye’s position as the second largest investor in Ethiopia, with more than 200 Turkish companies employing nearly 20,000 people through investments of approximately $2.5 billion, and the execution of 15 projects worth $2.6 billion in the contracting sector, reveal that the relationship is structural rather than rhetorical. In this context, the goal of increasing trade volume to $1 billion reflects a search for sectoral diversification and mutual dependency rather than a traditional increase in foreign trade. The roadmap established in areas such as energy, mining, agriculture, transportation, and education aims to shift bilateral relations from project-based cooperation to strategic coordination.
The agreement in the energy sector is not merely a matter of sectoral cooperation; it should be seen as a development that touches on the core of Ethiopia’s geo-economic positioning strategy. Areas such as electricity generation, grid infrastructure modernization, renewable energy investments, and hydroelectric capacity development are directly linked to Addis Ababa’s goal of integrating into regional value chains beyond ensuring energy supply security. The increase in hydroelectric capacity, shaped in particular by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), aims to transform Ethiopia from a producer that only meets its own domestic demand into an electricity exporter in East Africa and a central country in regional interconnected grid systems. In this context, energy is not a traditional infrastructure issue for Ethiopia; it is a means of scaling up the economy, increasing industrialization capacity, and establishing regional influence.
However, the tension created by GERD with Egypt also increases the geopolitical cost of energy projects. Therefore, Ethiopia’s energy strategy requires not only technical capacity but also diplomatic flexibility and multilateral economic engagement. Türkiye’s experience in developing energy infrastructure, its public-private partnership model, and its experience in regional connectivity projects can play a complementary role for Addis Ababa at this point. Ankara’s contribution is not limited to investment and technology transfer; it offers a geo-economic partnership platform that enables energy projects to be structured around regional integration, commercial interdependence, and economic stability. In that sense, energy cooperation goes beyond a sectoral agreement between the two countries and becomes part of a strategy to generate influence and establish stability through economic centrality in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s quest for sea access and regional competition
Ethiopia’s search for access to the sea is one of the main issues that has recently increased regional tensions. Addis Ababa’s agreement with Somaliland on access to the Red Sea conflicted with Somalia’s sovereignty claims and led to a regional crisis. Türkiye’s Ankara Process has emerged as a diplomatic effort to reduce this tension. The emphasis on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states in Erdoğan’s Feb. 17 speech, as well as the reference to the Ankara Process, points to Türkiye’s approach of developing relations with Ethiopia without disregarding Somalia’s sensitivities, signaling the country’s image as a reliable mediator in the Horn of Africa. This image also reflects Türkiye’s vision for regional stability in resolving various potential crisis lines fueled by Ethiopia’s search for access to the sea.
In this regard, one of the most critical aspects of the recent visit is Erdoğan’s explicit warning about foreign powers competing in the Horn of Africa. In recent years, the region has become a geopolitical battleground where global and regional actors have intensified their efforts through military bases, port investments, energy projects, as well as the security agreements. Ethiopia, which shares a long land border with Sudan, has drawn attention, particularly in the last year, with its military and security rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Furthermore, the importance of the Red Sea-Bab al-Mandab corridor for global trade has further intensified this competition. Türkiye’s approach, meanwhile, is that regional issues should be resolved by the countries of the region. In this respect, both the emphasis on the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity in Erdoğan’s speech and the message that “the Horn of Africa should not be a stage for proxy struggles” are noteworthy. Accordingly, while continuing its economic, commercial, military and security cooperation, Türkiye is consolidating its role as a balancing actor and contributor to regional stability by assuming the role of mediator and facilitator.
Furthermore, Erdoğan’s statement that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland would not benefit the region clearly reflects Türkiye’s approach in the Horn of Africa based on the status quo and the principle of territorial integrity. Recognition of Somaliland should be seen as a step that could encourage new separatist tendencies in the region, beyond weakening Somalia’s sovereignty claim. As a result, such a development could further fragment the already fragile security architecture. From this perspective, Türkiye’s position requires striking a delicate balance between its deep strategic partnership with Somalia and its diplomatic and economic relations with Ethiopia. Ankara is deepening its cooperation with Addis Ababa in the fields of energy and trade while also presenting itself as an actor contributing to regional stability by supporting Mogadishu’s territorial integrity.
Türkiye’s Horn of Africa strategy: Stability over competition
Looking at the bigger picture, Erdoğan’s visit to Ethiopia confirms the three main pillars of Türkiye’s Horn of Africa strategy: “economic integration, normative diplomacy, and a stability-focused security approach.” Türkiye is creating a multidimensional sphere of influence by complementing its military presence and security cooperation in the region with economic investments and cultural diplomacy. This model is based on a strategy of “connectivity” rather than classic power projection. The networks established through energy infrastructure, trade volume, transportation projects, and educational activities make the country a constructive element in the regional equation. The Feb. 17 visit to Ethiopia should also be seen as a concrete manifestation of this holistic approach.
Furthermore, the restoration activities of Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), the presence of the Türkiye Maarif Foundation in the field of education and other cultural diplomacy tools indicate Türkiye’s strategy to deepen its relations with Ethiopia not only on an economic and political level but also on a social level. This approach is consistent with Turkish foreign policy discourse, which is shaped by an emphasis on “equal partnership” and “mutual understanding” in Africa. Türkiye is consolidating the trust it has built by offering a normative framework, particularly in a region such as the Horn of Africa, which has been shaped by historical traumas and external interventions.
As a result, the Feb. 17 visit has strengthened the diplomatic groundwork for pursuing stability and balance in the Horn of Africa, beyond generating new momentum in Türkiye-Ethiopia relations. While bilateral relations are deepening through economic and technical cooperation, an approach based on the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and local solutions is coming to the fore in regional issues.
