There has been a presidential crisis in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for almost four months. The five political parties in the KRG Parliament have regularly been meeting for the resolution of the crisis. Despite these long meetings, the crisis has not been resolved yet and even deepened. Besides, the polarization among some political parties has increased. Notably, there has been a serious political dispute between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Gorran Movement.
The reason why the presidential crisis has not been resolved and the political parties have not reached a consensus was the differences of opinion about the powers of the president, whether the presidential elections are held in KRG or not, among the four political parties except KDP. Opposition parties are in favor of transferring the powers of the president to the parliament so that the presidency would be nothing more than a protocol office. In addition, they want the parliament to check the presidency. However, KDP and the other four political parties cannot agree upon that. There is another disagreement, which is on the president's being the commander in chief of the peshmerga forces. KDP wants President Masoud Barzani to preserve all of his powers even if he continues his duty or he is re-elected. The crisis has not been resolved although the four opposition parties have proposed bills for the resolution of the crisis. What is more, the crisis is likely to last long.
Another crisis in the KRG is the economic crisis. The economic crisis and the presidential crisis have become intermingled and been affecting each other. At least, this is how the people perceive the situation. There has been an economic crisis in the KRG which is getting worse since February 2014. Despite the secret meetings between Baghdad and Erbil, the two parties have not yet reached an agreement on the issues of oil production and sales. The government of Baghdad is not giving KRG the 17 per cent of the national budget. In response to that, KRG has tried to make money out of oil sales. KRG continued selling the oil produced in its territory to the world via Turkey and throughout the time, it has started producing more oil. In the beginning, KRG was producing 250,000 barrels of oil per day and then this amount increased to 500,000 barrels per day. For the last five months, KRG has been producing one million barrels of oil per day and exporting it to the world via Turkey. Although these oil revenues are significant, they are not enough to cover the needs of the KRG, which is not able to pay the salaries of its civil servants on time. Lately, KRG has been paying the salaries for every two months. Last year, Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of KRG, visited Baghdad a few times with a delegation composed of KRG ministers. They conducted a meeting with the Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi and his ministers, but no consensus was reached about the oil issue. “We, as KRG, displayed our strength and good will. We strived for reaching an agreement with Baghdad, but Baghdad is not comfortable with KRG's selling its own oil and does not want to reconcile”, a KRG official said. According to the Iraqi Constitution, KRG has the right to produce and sell oil, but Baghdad does not want to comply with that.
By October 2015, the civil servants in the KRG have not been able to receive their salaries for three months. Even the peshmerga forces that are fighting against ISIS have not been paid. Tens of five-star hotels and restaurants have been closed in the KRG, and the investments have been frozen. The political parties are accusing each other of not being able to resolve the problem.
There are a few important factors that had an impact on the emergence and deepening of the economic crisis in the KRG. The first one is that KRG is in a large-scale war. The border between the KRG and ISIS is 1,200 km long, and there is a continuous armed conflict at some fronts. 60,000 peshmergas are constantly on the watch in the fronts. This situation naturally affects the KRG economy. The second factor is that the number of the refugees in the KRG has dramatically increased for the last two years. There are 1.5 million refugees in the KRG, and some of these living in tent cities. These are adversely affecting the economic situation in the KRG.
In the first week of October 2015, there were anti-government protests in Suleymaniyah and many other districts. The demands in the protests were about the payment of the salaries and investments for development. The teachers also went on strike for the payment of their salaries for a week. The latest developments showed that the tensions stemming from the presidential crisis together with the economic problems went out of control, and the political parties are encouraging their supporters for street protests.
Another issue for discussions is related to the administrative structure of the KRG. Some political party representatives are openly discussing this issue whereas some columnists are explicitly stating their views. In a TV interview, a high-level KDP representative expressed: “We, as KDP, support the KRG as a single administration and are totally against two administrations.” The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) called for common sense for both sides in spite of the fact that the Gorran movement claimed just the opposite. The position of PUK in the current crisis will be decisive. Advocating a parliamentarian system, PUK called for dialogue between KDP and Gorran.
Since 1992 when the first local government was established in Kurdistan, KDP and PUK shared the administration of the political institutions of the KRG, which is the ruling body of the Kurdistan federal region from 1991 onwards. For now, these two political parties are the equilibrant of the KRG and if this balance collapses, all the balances within KRG will be on the verge of collapse. The emergence of Gorran as an oppositional movement in 2008, and its involvement in the government lately has not fundamentally changed the reality based on the KDP-PUK balance. Still, the power resides in these two political parties. Gorran does not have an armed group, but it tries to display its power via the people and directing its supporters toward the street protests. This does not contribute to the resolution of the crises.
Kurdistan region has a 24-year experience. For the interests of the region, Gorran has to play a much more constructive role. At this time, the situation of the neighboring countries is also important. For instance, Turkey's stability is crucial for KRG's political and economic stability. When the volume of bilateral trade and the energy agreements are considered, Turkey has critical economic interests in the region, too. Both sides have to work together for ensuring political and economic stability.
To conclude, the five political parties in the KRG have to reach an agreement as soon as possible. A positive result came out of the bilateral meeting between KDP and PUK, and both parties called for dialogue among all the political parties. The priority for the KRG should be ensuring the political and economic stability. Elections in the KRG will be held two years later, and the political parties have to offer new objectives and projects to the people and compete democratically.
