The developments that took place in Syria and Iraq during the first week of March signal what might turn into a disaster scenario for the Middle East.
The fact that the Syrian army troops of the Bashar al-Assad regime were killed in Iraq on March 2 appears to be an indicator of the interlocking structure of Syria and Iraq. Although interrelated events on the Syria-Iraq border and in both countries take place from time to time, it was maybe the first time that such a large-scale event had taken place. It is extremely important in terms of the connection between Syria and Iraq to make an analysis of the details after explaining the incident in general.
On March 2, some armed groups affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) seized control of the Yarubiyah border crossing in the Qamishli district of Al-Hasakah, Syria. It is asserted that Syrian Army troops affiliated with the Assad regime in Yarubiyah, which is located across from the Rabia border gate at Mosul, crossed the Iraqi border, and the Iraqi army counterattacked after the FSA opened fire on the Syrian troops who crossed the Iraqi border. In fact, it is also suggested that the Iraqi army launched artillery fire on the group, which had seized control of the Rabia border gate, in order to prevent the militia forces on the border from crossing. The Iraqi government stated that they did not attack, but counterattacked upon the artillery fire launched on Iraq. Allegedly, some Syrian troops were killed and wounded as a result. Following the incident, an Iraqi military convoy that was on its its way to the Al-Walid border crossing — one of the border gates opening from Iraq’s Al-Anbar province to Syria in order for Syrian troops in Rabia province to be safely delivered to Syrian authorities — was ambushed in western al-Anbar. Forty-eight Syrian soldiers and 13 Iraqi soldiers were killed as a result of the attack on the military convoy, and four of the Iraqi army’s military vehicles were destroyed. On March 4, the Iraqi army launched a wide-scale operation in the aforesaid area in Al-Anbar to capture the attackers. On March 5, the Iraqi army deployed a considerable number of soldiers, tanks and helicopters at the Rabia border gate. The Iraqi army wanted to enter Sinjar district on March 5, but the peshmerga forces in the area did not let them.
Although the incidents seem to have subsided, it is likely that the impact will continue to be felt. Considering the details of those incidents, we can see the events in Syria directly affect Iraq in several respects. Above all, the armed struggle in Syria directly affects security in Iraq in a negative way. While the problems related to the internal security of Iraq still continue, the perception of threat by Syria to Iraq brings with it border problems and border protection problems for Iraq. This situation is likely to cause a security gap in Iraq.
On the other hand, the Syrian and Iraqi peoples have an important level of social interaction and this might put Iraq, which is struggling with internal instability, in a more difficult position. It has been suggested that the Yarubiyah border gate in Syria was seized through an attack organized by the Jazeera Brigade, under the leadership of Jasim Al Shammari and affiliated to the FSA. Shammari is a member of the Shammar tribe, as his surname suggests. The Shammars, a Sunni Arab tribe, are also found in Syria, but the main place of settlement of the tribe is Mosul, and they live around Rabia. In fact, at the meeting held in Mosul on March 3, the Shammar tribe asked the Iraqi government not to attack the FSA in Yarubiyah, saying that those in the armed group are from their tribe. The Sunni Arabs in Iraq have been organizing large-scale demonstrations against the Iraqi government for some three months in provinces where Sunnis are densely settled, in Mosul and al-Anbar in particular. Considering the Shammar tribe’s statement, it is likely the public reaction to the Iraqi central government will increase because there is an affinity between Sunni Arab tribes in Mosul and Anbar with those in Syria. If the struggle spreads to Iraq, it might lead to vulnerability in Iraq.
Besides, the fact that the peshmerga forces did not let the Iraqi troops enter Sinjar on March 5 is a dynamic of the conflict. As is known, there has been a political, economic and, more importantly, military tension between the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for the past year. The developments in Kirkuk following the events that took place at the Rabia border gate during the summer of 2012, and the events in the Toz Khormatu district of Seladdin province in November of last year are still within living memory. On the other hand, the KRG directly supports Syrian Kurds, who are against the Assad regime. In this respect, the Iraqi central government, which directly supports the Assad regime, is facing the opposition of the KRG. At this point, the regional role of Iran and Turkey should also be taken into consideration within the equation.
In conclusion, although it is not correct to suggest that the struggle in Syria took place in Iraq based on a couple of negative events, the fact that the Syria issue has started to spread to Iraq has increased worries. Even the possibility of the Syrian fire igniting a powder keg in Iraq might cause a disaster scenario for the Middle East. It is believed that the Middle East does not have the dynamics to overcome both crises at the same time. Therefore, coming up with a political and a peaceful solution without spreading the events in Syria to other areas would make it possible for the Middle East to be able to breathe again, if even just a little.
