As the Arab Spring started to spread from North Africa to Middle East, one of the most intriguing subjects was the political choices of the Kurdish movement, which was highly demanding and organised, but did not get their shares from the modern state system. Actually, all the Kurdish movements in the Middle East were known to have some kind of political status demands. However, the chances for those demands to become a reality were quite slim prior to the Arab Spring. The demands only became more visible as the Syrian civil war spread across the region and the governments became more decrepit. As a result, the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) demand for the highest political status as an 'independent' government became especially critical. This article will look into Iraqi Kurds’ challenge to the present Middle Eastern borders.
Why Are We Debating an 'Independent Kurdistan'?
During his visit to the USA in early May, the KRG President Masoud Barzani used the words: “I cannot say when, but an independent Kurdistan is on its way.” The fact that this statement came just after a meeting with the US President Barack Obama, made the visit even more important. Many people questioned justifiably, if there were any positive developments for the independence of Kurds.
In an interview with CNN on 3 July 2014, Masoud Barzani for the first time at an international platform explicitly stated that they wanted separation from Iraq. As a result, the Kurdish demand for independence, which was an open secret, was clearly announced to the whole world. Although the objective of independence was existent, the announcement of the demand was delayed until the right time, or in other words, the right conjuncture was there. Three important developments that marked the right time for the Kurds occurred in 2014.
The first of these developments was, although still not completely resolved, the KRG’s becoming able to export oil on its own. Despite all the objections made by the Iraqi central government, KRG was able to reach a memorandum of understanding with the Turkish government to transport the regional oil to the Mediterranean Sea. By doing so, the KRG was able to crack the doors to a constant income and economic independence open. As a result, the Kurdish movement became able to challenge the central administration and spread the message that they possessed the economical means to self-sustain, should they become independent.
The second development that determined the time for the Kurdish demand for independence was the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) stepping out of Syria and invading Mosul. The Mosul invasion of ISIS and the Iraqi army withdrawing before ISIS created a de facto situation for the Kurdish. Because all of a sudden, the borders between the Iraqi central government and the KRG decreased from 1,065 kilometres to just 15 kilometres. The physical connection between two parties already clashing both economically and politically was about to disappear. The chaotic situation paved the ideal way to express the Kurdish demand for independence.
The third development was the Iraqi army’s withdrawal from the disputed territories over which the KRG claimed authority. After invading Mosul, the ISIS started to march towards the disputed areas, especially Kirkuk. Not willing to resist, the Iraqi army retreated, deserting the military headquarters. The existing peshmerga forces took the place of the Iraqi army, seizing the military equipment left behind. In addition to the increasing power of KRG in the disputed territories, the Kirkuk oil was also connected to the KRG pipeline to be exported. As a result, the disputed territories conflict looking like being de facto resolved in favour of the KRG boosted their confidence about independence.
Aside from all these developments that marked the time for the KRG’s announcement for the independence demands, the fact that the KRG citizens also support this demand shouldn’t be forgotten. It shouldn’t be overlooked that, to keep the KRG away from the chaos between the Shiites and Sunnis and also not to share the wealth with the rest of the Iraq, the independence claims are supported. Aware of this fact, Masoud Barzani is insistent that the demand should be settled with a referendum. As a result, it is quite difficult to express that the government and citizens share different opinions regarding this subject. However, the fulfilment of this demand is not only shaped by the KRG citizens, but also with global, regional powers and Kurdish groups.
Positions of the Global and Regional Powers
The demand for independence is widely debated by many actors since its announcement. Among these actors, the American position is especially critical, as many other actors decide on their roles upon the position of USA. Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the USA has been in favour of the territorial integrity of Iraq and strictly opposes any border changes. Americans demand a democratic change and transformation and respecting the borders, while requesting that all those problems are solved according to the Iraqi constitution. Still, USA intervenes when feels a threat against the Kurdish region. For example, while remaining passive against the ISIS invasion of Mosul, the US swiftly determined borders for ISIS via the air strikes while assisting the KRG with weapons when Erbil was under threat. To sum up, the USA prioritizes the stability and the safety of the Kurdish government, while delaying the independence demands in fear that it may destabilise the region.
Both Russia and China have embassies in the Iraqi Kurdish region, and are closely monitoring the region. Russian and Chinese energy companies also have investments in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Although not having any determining roles about the independence demands, they could be regarded ready about a possible independence situation, because they are boosting their investments being fully aware of the independence demand.
The constantly and quickly changing alliances in the Middle East are without any doubt are affecting the Kurdish demands for independence. Turkey springs into the scene as the country that will directly affect the independence demands due to its geopolitical position. In an interview in 2012, the KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani explained that they needed to convince at least one regional power for independence, and they wanted that power to be Turkey. When the independence demand was expressed in 2014, it was observed that Turkey didn’t repeat its old habits. Turkey chose to remain silent and not develop a political attitude against this demand. This Turkish attitude could be explained with increasing commercial relations and energy deals with KRG, as Turkey signed many oil deals with KRG valid for 50 years in 2013. These deals, which are expected to make huge contributions to Turkey’s strategic aims in energy fields, are also affecting Turkish political stance. Although Turkey underlines that it prioritizes Iraqi territorial integrity, the deals signed by Turkey are causing a shift in its political position.
The sternest reaction for the independence demand came from Iran, rejecting completely such a demand. The reason for such a stern reaction is both the Kurdish population in Iran, and the alliances made by KRG. KRG having close relations with USA and Israel makes Iran uneasy. As a result, a potential independence of KRG has the potential to pose serious existential problems to Iran. The uneasiness of Iran is bigger than an economic relations network like the one between Turkey and KRG could solve. However, considering KRG will only repeat its demands for independence, Iran is deepening its relations with KRG rather than cutting all the relations. Iran is trying to increase its influence on the KRG by developing cooperation, while trying to benefit from KRG economically. For example, the first country to send weapons to KRG during the ISIS raid was Iran. Iran is also trying to vitalize its economy with the oil deals it signs.
The most cooperative and supportive Middle Eastern country for the independence demand is Israel. When the independence demand was expressed, Israel quickly made a statement and offered its support. When no country was willing to buy the KRG oil, Israel became the first buyer for the oil and displayed its position. On the other hand, Israel thinks that an independent KRG will destabilise Iran during their clash. Israel anticipates that Iran, which is dealing with the nuclear crisis while struggling with the economic embargo, , will further weaken with an independent Kurdistan. Alienated by the Arab governments, Israel is seeking for an ally in Middle East. Becoming in good terms with an “Independent Kurdistan” that is integrated to the international system could save Israel from being alone in the region.
Saudi Arabia, emerging as another regional power, is currently discussing the independence demand of KRG, and the dominant idea is that the demand should be supported. The demand is considered to be a very useful trump in Saudi Arabia-Iran clash. Currently dealing with Iran through the proxy wars in Yemen, Saudi Arabia thinks that spreading the destabilisation to Iranian soil could well be possible with assisting KRG in its quest. To sum up, both Saudi Arabia and Israel are positive that an “independent Kurdistan” should be supported.
The Independence Demand Behind the Shadows of Intra-Kurdish Cooperation and Confrontation
Taking its place within many equations of the regional power clashes, the independence demand of the KRG is also a part of the power struggle between Kurdish groups. All of the political parties within KRG support and raise their voices for the independence demand. As an example, no political party opposed President Barzani’s call for a referendum. Still, a committee to discuss the independence with the Iraqi central government was put together following President Barzani’s US visit. Aimed to pave the road to a peaceful separation, the committee received members from all the political parties. Again, developments concerning this topic are still discussed and shared. However, some developments that arise regardless of all those, point to some problems inside the KRG. Main among which is the fact that KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party)’s and PUK (The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan)’s peshmerga forces not being unified. Although the law for the unification of peshmerga forces of the political parties is enacted, it is not possible to talk about the unification of the forces in practice. Two different armed forces within an independent body would not be able to convince international powers, while it also could trigger intra-KRG instability. It is not clear how the peshmerga forces of the parties which are fighting against the common enemy, ISIS, will behave in a peace period, making the demand of independence hard to realise. On the other hand, the fact that President Barzani's term in office is to end by August 2015 could also affect the demand for independence. As all the diplomatic and political relations are built upon the Masoud Barzani balance, a vacancy that could be caused by him being absent and the uncertainty who the new President could be may drive the international community to adopt a different stance.
Still, the situation of the Syrian Kurds has the potential to affect the independence demands of the Iraqi Kurds. Two cantons under the control of PYD (Democratic Union Party) unified when Tel Abyad was seized by the YPG (People’s Protection Units) forces. Should all the cantons unify, there might be a demand for political status by the Syrian Kurds over a certain territory. As a result, what kind of political status the Syrian Kurds demand would determine the future of the Iraqi Kurds. PYD officials have always underlined that they are not after independence, but rather are after democratic autonomy. This demand, which would mean the current borders remain unchanged, opposes with Iraqi Kurds’ demand for independence that challenge the borders in the Middle East. As a result, if there is not a single common position or a political demand, the independence demand of the Iraqi Kurds might also be interrupted.
The conjunctural situation in Middle East has provided the Iraqi Kurds with suitable conditions to express their independence demands. However, the realisation of this demand is not as simple as it seems, as it is sensitive to many factors. Long story short, the political independence objective of the Iraqi Kurds is right in the middle of regional and intra-Kurdish struggle.
This article was published in Ortadoğu Analiz journal with the title of “The Quest of Iraqi Kurds for Independence”
