The change in the political equation in terms of ethnicity and sects following the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the coalition forces which was founded under the leadership of the USA moved the Turkmens, the third founding element of the country to the fourth position behind the Shiites-Sunni and the Kurds. In other words, the Turkmens are cast out of the system within this new political process. It can be said that after the invasion of Iraq not only the Baath regime changed but also the social structure in Iraq underwent serious breakdowns. Because the effects of the political system that was built based on ethnic and sectarian structure by the USA are reflected on the popular and social life in Iraq. For that reason, lack of status lies at the top of the problems faced by the Turkmens in post-invasion Iraq. The Turkmens who were represented poorly in the governments formed since 2003 in Iraq could not have an efficient position in the new political order of Iraq. The Turkmens had to migrate from Mosul after its takeover by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIS) on 10 June 2014. Following this development, the Turkmens are faced with a struggle for existence far beyond the difficulties emerged after the US invasion. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the human crisis lived by the Turkmens as well as ISIS' control over Mosul. Such an analysis is important for having clues regarding the country's future.
Problems of the Turkmens in Post-ISIS Iraq
The Turkmens had to migrate from their lands due to the change in demographics following the US invasion and inevitably because of this situation, Turkmen identity went through a dangerous process. After the invasion, almost all of the Turkmen regions turned into a constitutional crisis in Baghdad-Erbil relations, notably the Kirkuk problem. The change in the demographic structure of Kirkuk by the Kurds brought about a struggle for existence for the Turkmens. In this regard, the implementation of the Article 140 of the Constitution of Iraq paved the way for the annexation of Kirkuk to Iraqi Kurdistan on three stages (normalization, population census, referendum). The geography of Turkmen which is rich in agriculture and energy is faced with problems of migration and security. Following these developments, because of ISIS' advances since June 2014, Turkmen regions such as Tal Afar region and surrounding villages of Mosul, Tuz Khormato, Sulaiman Bek, Yankjah, Amirli, Bastamli in Saladin Province, Taza Khurmatu and Al-Bashir village in Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Qarah Tapah and Sadiya in Diyala, are seen to have turned into battlefields.
Besides, ISIS has carried out massacres against the Turkmens in the regions where it advanced and its practices mark a human tragedy. More than 350 thousand Turkmens have had to migrate within the country whereas thousands took refuge in Turkey since June 2014. Those who had to migrate in Iraq migrated to Iraqi Kurdistan and to the south of Iraq, particularly Baghdad. It is observed that the international and regional communities have made ethnic discrimination against the Turkmens who run from the torture of ISIS. The reactions of the USA and the international community in order to protect the Yazidis after Yazidi towns Sinjar and Al Mahmur in Mosul fell under control of ISIS on 4 August 2014 is an example in this regard. However, it can be said that the UN and other international organizations remained silent towards the massacre and the human crisis in the Turkmen regions under ISIS control. It is worrying that the USA, Baghdad and Erbil did not display the same sensitivity to the siege of Amirli for 84 days by ISIS, a Turkmen region with a population of 20 thousand as they did to the Sinjar District. It should be pointed out that after the takeover of Sinjar by ISIS, the UN, the USA and the European Union provided humanitarian aid in order to meet the needs of Yazidi immigrants whereas there was no aid provided for the Turkmens except the aid by Turkey. What's more, the USA and the western countries (Germany, France) have been directly supplying the Peshmerga, the Kurdish army with military aid.
Within this framework, it can be said that the Turkmens are faced with two big dangers in post-ISIS Iraq. The first one is the danger that the Turkmens will lose their lands owing to the fact that they had to migrate from the regions under the control of ISIS and their return will take a long time. The other one is the danger that the separation between the Sunnis and the Shiites among the Turkmens will be more evident. It is worrying that especially in Tal Afar there is a high risk of sectarian separation. The fact that the Turkmens who fled the regions notably Tal Afar under ISIS control had to take refuge in the southern cities of the country (Karbala and Najaf) after having been obstructed by Iraqi Kurdistan from entering Erbil might set the stage for sectarian separation of the Turkmens.
Turkmen Identity Under Threat
As a result of the developments in Iraq along with ISIS' advance, it is highly likely that the plans to change extensively the demographic structure of the Turkmen regions will cause the sectarian separation of the Turkmen identity in the short and medium term. The purpose of the plan concerning the Turkmen identity is to finally enable sectarian separation among the Turkmens with the help of ISIS as happened between the Shiite-Sunni Arabs after the US invasion. With ISIS' presence, attacks on the Turkmen authorities, civilians and businessmen, forceful migration and kidnapping of the Turkmens have increased especially in Kirkuk as well as in other Turkmen regions.
There are two reasons for this increase. The first one is the forceful migration of the Turkmens from the regions in which they are the majority. This situation occurs mostly in the Turkmen regions where people have not been assimilated or cannot be assimilated. For example, it can be said that the Turkmens in the Turkmen regions such as Kirkuk and Tuz Khormato are subjected to many actions like forceful migration, armed assaults and kidnapping. Moreover, Turkmens in post-invasion Iraq still continue to defend the territorial integrity of the country. The Sunni Arabs previously defending the territorial integrity and unitary structure of Iraq together with the Turkmens now defend the separation of Iraq into three parts and the foundation of an autonomous Sunni region. The purpose of the attacks on Turkmen authorities and citizens might be to force them to take sides between the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions if Iraq happens to be separated into three regions de facto. Because in case that post-ISIS Iraq will be separated into three autonomous regions, it is likely that in geopolitical terms the Turkmens will have to be integrated into either the Kurdish region or Sunni Arab region. This is a highly important matter which Turkmen policy makers should discuss in case of any unexpected consequences. For, this situation might lead the Turkmens to a geographic and sectarian separation.
The other reason is replacing the plan of changing the demographic structure of the Turkmen regions with ethnic cleansing. In addition, the Peshmerga forces protecting Kirkuk after the advances of ISIS in the country and the power struggle between the Turkmen policy makers put the town's future at risk. That a delegation consisting of Turkmen members of Kirkuk Province Assembly visited Erbil on 28 May 2015 and submitted a project to the Speaker of the Iraqi Kurdish Parliament, Yusuf Mohammad in order for Kirkuk to be a special area reflects the disagreement between the Turkmen political authorities regarding the city's future. Because the president of Iraqi Turkmen Front Erşad Salihi strongly rejected the visit of the Turkmen delegation in Kirkuk Province Assembly to Erbil in his statement. Indeed, Turkmen policy-makers should not disagree about the future of a vital city like Kirkuk.
Considering the developments above, in order for the Turkmens to overcome the dangers they are up against, all Turkmen political parties, institutions and associations should take a joint action against sectarian separation. If the Turkmens take part in al-Hashd al-Shaabi (People’s Mobilization) which is predominantly Shiite and was founded after the fatwa of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani being the most high-ranking religious authority of the Shia in Iraq to fight against ISIS or al-Hashd al-Watani (National Mobilization) which was founded by the Sunni Arabs, the sectarian separation among the Turkmens will be more clear and intense. In order for the Turkmen politics to revive and to be encouraged Iraqi Turkmen Front, Turkmen parties and institutions should be revised. Coordination between all institutions and organizations shaping the Turkmen politics should be facilitated. Problems of humanity, political, economic and security problems of the Turkmens should not be assessed from the perspective of Turkish nationalism in Turkey. For, Turkmen problem in Iraq is no longer a problem about Turkish nationalism and turned into a humanitarian crisis. Turkey should take the initiative to gather once again all Turkmen political parties and Turkmen movement leaders in order for the Turkmens to be saved from the dangers they are facing. To sum up, all elements in Iraq must see Turkey’s support for the Turkmens substantially.
