A major suicide attack, including the use of car bombs and suicide bombers, took place in Arbil against Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Sept. 29, 2013.
Seven people were killed and 67 injured, according to the KRG Ministry of Health. It was also reported that six terrorists were killed in a firefight during the attack.
According to the KRG Ministry of Interior, there were two car bombs in the attack aimed at the Kurdish Security Directorate (Asayish) in Arbil; five suicide bombers who attempted to drive into the security building were killed. However, it was also allegedly reported that five separate explosions took place.
The aforementioned attack was recorded as the biggest suicide bombing to hit Arbil since 2007. Considering the way the attack was carried out, it is believed that the methods of al-Qaeda were used. Statements suggesting that the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) completed the attack were published on various social media and networking sites. However, there is no accurate information on these claims. Nevertheless, it is possible to make some assessments about why the attack might have been carried out. The possibility that the attack could have been carried out by ISIL especially highlights the struggle between Syrian Kurds and the al-Nusra Front.
As is known, the al-Nusra Front has been exerting pressure on Kurdish settlements in northern Syria, and has been fighting with Kurdish groups — the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in particular. The KRG wants to increase its influence over northern Syria, and thus supports Syrian Kurds. Therefore, considering the al-Nusra Front's link to both ISIL and also to al-Qaeda, it is possible to assert that it might have carried out such an attack in Iraqi Kurdistan.
On the other hand, it was reported that last week firefights took place in the Hamrin region between peshmerga forces and Ansar al-Islam, which is an al-Qaeda-linked radical armed organization of Kurdish Islamists. Those actions have emphasized al-Qaeda's potential to carry out such actions in the region. Furthermore, in Mosul — known as the province where al-Qaeda is active — it has been suggested that the Kurds' political and military influence is causing a disturbance.
Considering the way the attack was carried out, it is possible to say that it was a well-planned and organized attack. The fact that the attack was aimed at the security building is another important point. That the attack was not aiming for a random building but the KRG's security building grabs one's attention. It points out the vulnerability of the KRG's Asayish. As a matter of fact, it could be the result of comfort — as mentioned above, such a major, violent attack had not taken place in the provinces under the KRG since 2007 — because these provinces are said to be the most stable regions of Iraq, especially in terms of security. The security of these provinces was something highlighted in the official ad campaigns of the KRG. Compared to other provinces in Iraq, the KRG actually managed to restore stability in security as well as politics in the post-2003 period. However, this attack shows that it is not easy to maintain security under the situation in Iraq. Although the KRG has relatively well-protected and institutionalized security units compared to other regions of Iraq, the odds of infiltration from other regions of the country can clearly be seen, as in this attack.
What is more important at this point is how the KRG will manage things in the upcoming future. It has been heard that extraordinary security measures were taken in Sulaimaniya and Dohuk. The fact that the attack took place right after the elections in Iraqi Kurdistan might cause trauma among people in the region. The attack, which was carried out on Sept. 29, one day after the first official results of the Sept. 21 parliamentary elections were announced, would have a negative impact at a high level on the locals who took part in the elections.
On the other hand, the fact that it had an unexpected impact on KRG domestic politics is attention grabbing. Following the attack, all Kurdish political parties urged unity. This call might bring forward the possibility of a broad participation coalition government including all parties being formed after the announcement of the election results. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which came first in the elections with about 38 percent of the vote, might need the support of other parties to provide unity in the region, despite the fact that it announced it would form a government as it wishes. If it doesn't get the support of other parties, the disagreement between groups in the region could turn into an advantage of those parties that aim to bring instability.
On the other hand, the attack could also be considered an open message to the election-leading KDP. In the decade of the post-2003 process after the US invasion of Iraq, the KDP became the main driving force of the KRG. Despite the strategic alliance between the KDP and the Kurdistan Patriotic Union (PUK), the KDP was in power for eight years in the region and the PUK for two. Thus, the KDP became the main political actor and secured its authority in the KRG. As a matter of fact, the results of the Sept. 21 election prove this. However, the attack in Arbil might also be perceived as an indicator that the KDP cannot control everything in the region.
Finally, the attack caused unease both in the KDP, other parties and also among the people in the region. The continuation of attacks would overshadow the claims of stability in the region. Considering that Iraqi Kurdistan is a point of attraction — especially for Turkey and other third parties — and major investments are being made in the region, even the possibility that the attacks might continue could damage the development in the region.
